Adrien Brody takes the lead in 2025 SAG Awards predictions: Updated odds
Originally published Feb. 20 at 5 a.m. PT; updated Feb. 21 at 1 p.m. PT
The film actor race at the 2025 Screen Actors Guild Awards has gone through a last-minute shakeup in Gold Derby’s predictions, with Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) losing his lead on Friday to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Brody recently prevailed at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA Awards for his role in the period drama about the American Dream, and he’s now on track to win this final key precursor in the lead-up to the Oscars.
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Wicked, which leads all films this year with five SAG nominations, is Gold Derby’s pick to win the best ensemble prize at Sunday’s ceremony. The big-screen adaptation of the popular (pun intended) Broadway stage musical is also up for lead actress (Cynthia Erivo), supporting actress (Ariana Grande), supporting actor (Jonathan Bailey), and stunt ensemble.
The other expected SAG winners in the movie categories are Demi Moore (The Substance) in lead actress, Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) in supporting actress, and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) in supporting actor. All three recently triumphed at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, with the latter two also taking BAFTA, where Moore was bested by Mikey Madison (Anora). The Fall Guy, a quirky movie adaptation of the old TV show about a stunt performer, is the odds-on favorite to win — what else? — best stunt ensemble.
For television, Shōgun is expected to have a clean sweep of its four races: drama ensemble, drama actor (Hiroyuki Sanada), drama actress (Anna Sawai), and stunt ensemble. Four wins would be a new TV record at the SAG Awards. Hacks is the No. 1 choice to claim both comedy ensemble and comedy actress (Jean Smart). Other likely champs are Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) in comedy actor, Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer) in limited/movie actress, and Colin Farrell (The Penguin) in limited/movie actor.
SEEWhy the SAG Awards is the biggest test for Zoe Salda?a — and why Ariana Grande can pull the upset
Our SAG Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts, editors, and users, the latter group making up our biggest predictions bloc. More than 2,800 people have chimed in with their picks so far. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
The 2025 SAG Awards will stream Sunday on Netflix at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. Here are Gold Derby’s predictions in all 15 categories, with forecasted winners denoted in gold.
BEST FILM ENSEMBLE
1. Wicked — 43/20
2. Anora — 29/10
3. Conclave — 9/2
4. A Complete Unknown — 7/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
BEST FILM ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 46/25
2. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 16/5
3. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 9/2
4. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) — 8/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 17/2
BEST FILM ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 9/4
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 12/5
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 7/1
5. Daniel Craig (Queer) — 9/1
BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 31/20
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 37/10
3. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 5/1
4. Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) — 7/1
5. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) — 17/2
BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 3/2
2. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 4/1
3. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 5/1
4. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 6/1
5. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked) — 17/2
BEST FILM STUNT ENSEMBLE
1. The Fall Guy — 2/1
2. Dune: Part Two — 31/10
3. Deadpool and Wolverine — 5/1
4. Gladiator II — 7/1
5. Wicked — 7/1
BEST TV COMEDY ENSEMBLE
1. Hacks — 31/20
2. The Bear — 19/5
3. Only Murders in the Building — 6/1
4. Abbott Elementary — 13/2
5. Shrinking — 15/2
BEST TV COMEDY ACTRESS
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 3/2
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 4/1
3. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 5/1
4. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 13/2
5. Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear) — 17/2
BEST TV COMEDY ACTOR
1. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 9/5
2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 37/10
3. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 9/2
4. Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside) — 13/2
5. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 15/2
BEST TV DRAMA ENSEMBLE
1. Shōgun — 29/20
2. The Diplomat — 9/2
3. Slow Horses — 5/1
4. Bridgerton — 13/2
5. The Day of the Jackal — 17/2
BEST TV DRAMA ACTRESS
1. Anna Sawai (Shōgun) — 11/5
2. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 12/5
3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 5/1
4. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 7/1
5. Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton) — 9/1
BEST TV DRAMA ACTOR
1. Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun) — 3/2
2. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 4/1
3. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 5/1
4. Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun) — 7/1
5. Jeff Bridges (The Old Man) — 17/2
BEST TV LIMITED/MOVIE ACTRESS
1. Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer) — 31/10
2. Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country) — 4/1
3. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 9/2
4. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 11/2
5. Kathy Bates (The Great Lillian Hall) — 15/2
6. Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge) — 17/2
BEST TV LIMITED/MOVIE ACTOR
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 31/20
2. Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer) — 37/10
3. Andrew Scott (Ripley) — 9/2
4. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 8/1
5. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 17/2
BEST TV STUNT EMSEMBLE
1. Shōgun — 3/2
2. The Penguin — 4/1
3. The Boys — 11/2
4. Fallout — 6/1
5. House of the Dragon — 15/2
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