We Asked 4 Housing Market Experts for the Best Time To Buy in the Next Few Years—Their Answers Were Strangely Comforting

Stephanie Osmanski

March 2, 2023 at 6:41 AM·14 min read

Plus, find out if they believe the housing market is 'about to burst.'

As the American population struggles with inflation, mass layoffs and through-the-roof interest rates, it's getting harder for people to buy a house. As hopeful homebuyers await a desperately-needed change in the market, plenty of questions arise about the state of the real estate market. Parade reached out to four housing market experts to pick their brains about what to expect in the next few years. Here's what real estate agents and loan officers have to say about the best time to buy a house, why rates are so high and more.

When is the best time of year to buy a house?

A crucial part of finding the right home for you (as well as the right price) is timing. There's a lot that goes into buying a house including availability, the job market, the housing market, interest rates and more.

Parade consulted Mustafa Uruk, a licensed real estate agent with EXIT Realty Island Elite in New York. Uruk spearheads the Team Estate Kings.

"This is the most important question of all and the most common one I get during my buyer consultations," Uruk tells Parade. "I always ask this question back: 'What is your motivation?' If I don't understand the client's 'why,' I won't know their 'how.' Buying a home is never a one-size-fits-all approach."

After all, there are myriad reasons to buy a home. Whether you're downsizing, upsizing, relocating or looking for an investment property, understanding your specific circumstance is important to finding the right fit for you.

"Depending on [the buyer's] situation and their financial abilities, each market has its own benefit to the right buyer, or the right approach," Uruk adds. "That's why pairing up with a real estate professional who is an expert in their market area as well as a great lender is crucial... for a successful outcome."

Still, if you've been perusing real estate recently, then you know how much the market can fluctuate and are probably wondering if there is, in fact, a best time of year to buy a house. While some industry experts might point to springtime as one of the hottest times for the real estate market because there is so much inventory, Peter Papazoglou, one-half of The Mortgage Guys team at RCG Mortgage—named the #1 mortgage brokerage on Long Island, New York—says it's not that simple.

"It's not about the time of year or where the interest rates are," Papazoglou tells Parade. "Is there a best time of year to buy? I wouldn't phrase it like that. It's a matter of when the right house comes up and ensuring that you can comfortably make those payments."

Papazoglou adds, "Most people buy in the spring, but does that mean it's the best time to buy? I bought my first house in the winter and was able to negotiate because there weren't as many buyers at that point."

Still, Papazoglou mentions that winter can be a hard time to buy a home because historically, there has been less inventory.

What are the busiest months of the year for buying a house? The least busy?

Uruk explains, "I would say spring and summer are the busiest seasons. End of fall and early winter would be the least busy. However, most serious buyers and sellers are active during that time and the sellers are highly motivated, so [there are] great deals to be made during that time."

Will 2023 be a good time to buy a house?

Because so many factors influence the housing market, it can change in the blink of an eye. That fast-changing nature can make the future unpredictable and nearly impossible to anticipate.

Parade spoke with Evan Russell, also of The Mortgage Guys team at RCG Mortgage.

"With higher interest rates causing lower demand, you’re not looking at waiving inspections or appraisals, putting yourself at potential risk, or having to offer well beyond asking prices," Russell says. "Simply put, it's less competitive for current buyers. The sooner you buy and invest in real estate, the more equity and wealth you can compound over time."

Another advantage to buying in 2023 (or really, anytime rates are on the higher side) is that there's always the option to refinance.

"Since it's a little less competitive to purchase as a buyer right now, even though you're getting in with rates that are higher than they've been in the past, you can immediately refinance when interest rates come down," Papazoglou says. "A prospective buyer sitting on the sidelines now and waiting for rates to come down will have to find the house first to take advantage of the lower rates. If you already own the house and are building that equity, you immediately get to take advantage of that and are likely in a better spot overall than when you purchased the home," Papazoglou adds.

Will 2024 be a better time to buy a house?

Perhaps even more uncertain than the housing market in 2023 is the housing market in 2024. So much can happen in the time between now and then, making it tricky to project where the market will be and what turns it may take.

"It's challenging to predict if 2024 will be a better time to buy a house compared to 2023," Uruk explains. "[I]t's essential to keep an eye on market trends, consult a real estate professional or financial advisor, and make an informed decision based on your personal circumstances and goals when considering buying a house."

That being said, many real estate agents and loan officers alike are in agreement that the best time to buy is now—given you're ready and able.

Michael Wright, licensed real estate salesperson with Douglas Elliman Real Estate, explains, "Timing the market for your primary residence is an excuse not to act," Wright says. "It is much easier to find value in the market we’re in than wait for the market to change. Let’s focus on what we can control."

When is the most expensive time to buy a house?

According to Wright, the most expensive time to buy a house doesn't have to do with a time of the month or year, but rather when the decision isn't in the buyer's control.

"The most expensive time to buy is when you’re forced to make a decision quickly by waiting until your current lease is about to expire or listing your current home for sale without a clear plan to move forward," Wright explains. "In a perfect world, a client will speak with me six to 12 months prior to their move."

But—keeping in mind that how expensive it is to buy a house varies on location and market conditions—there are a few factors to consider as far as timing.

"Typically, the spring and summer months tend to be the most expensive time of the year to buy a house," Uruk clarifies. "This is because there is usually more demand for houses during this time and sellers may price their homes higher to take advantage of the increased demand."

And don't forget that school usually starts at the end of August [or] early September, depending on where you live. That often plays a role in families wanting to close on a house before the new school year starts.

"Families with school-age children tend to prefer to move during the summer months to minimize disruptions to their children's education," Uruk adds. "However, it's worth noting that while spring and summer may be the most expensive times of the year to buy a house, they may also offer the most significant selection of houses to choose from."

What to know about interest rates

If you're a potential buyer whose understanding of interest rates is shaky at best, you're not alone. There are a few things you need to know about interest rates before deciding if buying makes sense for you.

"Every aspect of the economy truly impacts mortgage interest rates—from employment, inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), manufacturing and services industry data to corporate company earnings and all other components of the economy," Russell explains.

At the end of the day, it's mortgage bonds and mortgage-backed securities—"bonds comprised of thousands of homeowner loans, which are then purchased by investors looking for a certain rate of return," Russell says—that have the most significant influence over whether interest rates are high or low.

"There is something called a 'flight to safety,' which happens when the stock market is not doing well," Russell says. "It means that investors who otherwise are purchasing stocks and equities buy bonds instead, including mortgage bonds, which are deemed safer investments... When there's a downtick in the stock market, we see a large increase in the purchasing of mortgage bonds, which drives interest rates down. The price of the bond becomes higher (similar to how there [are] higher prices when there's [a] higher demand for housing), which causes interest rates to fall."

Related: 3 Hot Real Estate Trends

Then there's the inverse, which is why interest rates have been so high throughout 2022 and so far in 2023.

"Conversely, when the stock market is hot, these same investors take their money out of the bond markets, which creates less demand, thus decreasing the price of mortgage bonds and increasing the interest rates."

It's one of the main reasons interest rates were so low—the lowest rates in history, Russell clarifies—at the start of the coronavirus global pandemic. It's also why so many homeowners used the moment to refinance.

"In the beginning of 2022, the government [slowed down] their bond buying and have since completely stopped, causing significantly less demand," Russell says. "It's is a large reason we have seen such spikes in the mortgage interest rates to where they are today in the high 6 percent range."

Will interest rates go down in 2023?

Russell says, "The economy and demand for mortgage bonds is what affects mortgage interest rates and until we see inflation begin to decrease (and the fear of another COVID-related incident) going away, these higher mortgage interest rates are here to stay."

According to the U.S. News and World Report's 2023 to 2027 Housing Predictions, other potential—albeit precarious—factors that can affect interest rates include:

A surge in COVID-19 cases
China's reopening and how it impacts inflation
The Russia-Ukraine war

Still, potential buyers shouldn't lose hope and may want to weigh the cost-benefits of waiting for rates to come down versus acting now.

"The good news is you can always refinance once rates come down," Russell adds. "The best advice is to marry the home, date the rate and buy now."

According to U.S. News and World Report's 2023 to 2027 Housing Predictions,

Is a recession a good time to buy a house?

"I don't think buyers should wait for a recession to buy a house for two reasons, Uruk says. "First, buying a house during a recession may not be a wise decision if the buyer is uncertain about their financial stability, such as losing their job or experiencing a reduction in income. This uncertainty could make it challenging to keep up with mortgage payments and other housing-related expenses, putting the buyer at risk of foreclosure or financial distress."

Uruk adds, "Second, while a recession may lead to lower home prices, it could also lead to fewer houses on the market. This could result in increased competition among buyers, driving up prices for available houses."

Will house prices drop in five years?

According to the U.S. News and World Report:

"While it’s quite possible for median home prices to fall another 5% in 2024 – or a total potential drop of about 10% from the end of 2022 – if mortgage rates decline faster than predicted, that could mean home prices remain mostly flat through the end of 2024. However, if real incomes rise faster than inflation, the combination of that extra purchasing power plus lower mortgage rates would boost affordability, home sales and prices. If that happens from 2025 through 2027, look for home prices to start rising again by approximately 1% to 2% above the current inflation rate. But it will likely take some time to reach the home value heights of mid-2022."

Wright echoes the uncertainty of house prices, adding, "Real estate values go up and down. Interest rates go up and down. Sometimes both go up, sometimes both go down, sometimes they go in opposite directions and it's difficult to predict which one is going in which direction."

Is the housing bubble about to burst?

It's one of the most frequently asked questions about the housing market: Is the housing bubble about to burst?

But Wright not only challenges this question; he also has doubts it even exists.

"First question is: Is there a bubble? Second question is… What defines it bursting?" Wright asks. "The rise in home prices is not sustainable if wages don’t rise as well. However, that doesn’t mean home values will fall off a cliff. The Federal Reserve is focused on a 'soft landing.' The jury is out on whether or not it’s happening and that is only one piece of the puzzle of things that affect real estate values."

The U.S. World News Report has its own predictions, calling a forthcoming "burst" unlikely, explaining:

"While the housing market on a national scale has seen prices decline since mid-2022 amid high interest rates, experts are noting that a sudden and abrupt is unlikely, based on current market conditions."

The Mortgage Guys don't think it's likely either and discourage buyers from anticipating a repeat of the 2008 crash.

"Absolutely NOT," Russell says. "In 2008, the large increases in value were due to demand, yes, but something called the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) was the reason for this demand. It measures the availability or supply of mortgage credit."

Combined with the fact that the MCAI was at an all-time high in 2008 and there were extremely loose regulations on who qualified for a loan, droves of unqualified buyers were foreclosed on when they couldn't make payments. Stricter lending regulations in the mortgage industry now keep history from repeating this mistake.

There have been recessions since the 2008 crash—six, in fact—but Russell maintains 2008 was the only one in which home values plummeted.

"We will not see any sort of 'burst' of a bubble in housing," Russell says. "Rather, value increases will simply ease as they have already in most parts of the country and we'll potentially see minor decreases in other parts of the country."

Will housing be cheaper if the market crashes?

Prices can decline even without a crash, causing housing to be cheaper without the disruption of the market.

"'Cheaper' is not the right way to put it," Papazoglou says. "There may be more inventory, giving more options to buyers and therefore stabilizing price points, but house values won't plummet based on lending guidelines imposed now that weren't in the past."

With all of that in mind, The Mortgage Guy team still believes the best time to buy is now.

"Buying now ensures you the lowest initial investment and payments as real estate over time will only continue to increase as the demand for shelter is not going anywhere," Russell says. "Real estate always has and always will be the safest investment and best tool [for] building generational wealth."

Next up, the most popular movie homes—revealed.

Sources

Mustafa Uruk, a licensed real estate agent with EXIT Realty Island Elite in NY
Peter Papazoglou, one-half of The Mortgage Guys team at RCG Mortgage
Evan Russell, also of The Mortgage Guys team at RCG Mortgage.
Michael Wright, licensed real estate salesperson with Douglas Elliman Real Estate

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