Championship Tour Qualification Race Heats Up At Pivotal U.S. Open of Surfing

With three events left, it’s crunch time in the Challenger Series, with the US Open set to make or break dreams for a host of would-be World Tour qualifiers. The forecast at this point is for marginal, albeit clean, conditions in the 2–3 foot range to open the event window, providing contestable waves and a quintessential beach-break canvas built for explosive single maneuvers and two-turn combos. That swell will be followed by a more significant, long-period pulse in the back half of the window, with the potential for some death-or-glory closeout maneuvers sure to test who really wants a spot on the World Tour in 2025.

As you’d expect at the midway point of the season, there is a glut of WT qualification contenders, and whatever this event may lack in wave quality it is certain to make up for in drama and storylines.

How Many Points Do You Need to Qualify for the World Tour?

As for who sits where and who needs what to qualify, it’s hard to know exactly what the magic ratings tally will be, but we can get some idea by looking at previous years. In 2023, the magic number was 17,000 points for the men and 22,700 for the women. In the previous year, the number was 15,000 for the men and 25,000 for the women, although these numbers are potentially misleading due to the fact there were only six C.S events and, on the men’s side of the draw, a host of World Tour competitors competing in them, including John John Florence and Gabriel Medina, both of whom took out events.

Related: Caroline Marks Wins Women’s Olympic Surfing Gold Medal

Who Is Likely to Make the Cut for 2025?

Given that the magic number—which is comprised of a surfer's best five results from seven events—is likely to fall somewhere between those two years, we can make some educated guesses about who needs what to have a realistic shot of qualifying for the 2025 World Tour.

With 19,490 points, ratings leader Brazilian Ian Gouveia (5th, 5th, 1st) is surely a lock for the World Tour, with three events still to come. Countryman Sammy Pupo, on 15,865, needs only a 17th-place finish to secure his spot at the US Open. Given that there are still two events after that, he is all but guaranteed a start on the World Tour next year.

From there, the dogfight begins. Brazilian Alejo Muniz (11,820) and Australians George Pittar (11,305) and Mikey Mcdonagh (11,300) can secure qualification in Huntington with a semi-final finish. Australian Jordy Lawler (10,700) can also all but secure a World Tour berth in 2025 with a semi-final finish.

Brazilian Michael Rodrigues (9,965) has been there before and is looking odds on to get there again, with a win at the US Open able to lock in his spot on Tour. With three events remaining, including one at home in Brazil, he’ll be backing himself to get the job done.

But it’s local hero and Long Beach beach break specialist Nolan Rapoza who will be the surfer to watch come Huntington. Despite a shocking start to the year (49th, 49th), a runner-up in Ballito saw him rocket 56 spots up the rankings into 8th place, two spots above the qualification line. A semi-finalist at the US Open in 2023, if Rapoza can repeat these heroics he will need only finish 17th or better in the final two events to secure his qualification. Anything less than a 5th, however, will make his world tour dream an uphill battle.

Related: Watch: Nolan Rapoza Leapfrogs 56 Spots on Challenger Series at Ballito Pro

2015 US Open Winner Hiroto Ohara, who you may recall offered one of the funniest winning speeches in the event’s history, is the next man up on 8,765, needing to win the event to become the World Tour’s first Japanese-born-and-raised qualifier. The last man in the top ten is Brazilian Edgard Groggia on 8,585, who can also qualify at the US Open with a win.

Mathematically speaking, with three events remaining, the entire top 100 are still in contention, which gives you an idea of how much is at stake in this event. Among the big names way back in the pack is 2024 World Tour cut victim Frederico Morais (Portugal), ranked 65th on the C.S. following a diabolical start to his re-qualification campaign (33rd, 49th, 49th). Kolohe Andino, who missed the Ballito Pro, finds himself at 60th.

Moving into the top 50, there is an abundance of former world tour talent looking to kick their campaign into gear at the US Open. 2024 Pipe Pro semi-finalist and World Tour rookie Ian Gentil is coming off a last start 33rd at Ballito and finds himself on 4,500 points, ranked 34th. He needs a minor miracle to make it from here, requiring a win and a semi-final finish from these next three events. Fellow 2024 WT rookie Kade Matson, ranked 32nd, finds himself in an identical situation, as does former Final Five contender (2021) Morgan Cibilic, from Australia, ranked 31st.

Despite finishing in the top ten on the World Tour in his rookie year in 2022, Australian Callum Robson was relegated at this season’s mid-year cut and has struggled for form on the C.S. since (17th, 25th, 25th). His cause will not be helped by a fractured shin suffered during a strike mission to Skeleton Bay following the Ballito Pro, which will see him miss the US Open. He will now need a semi-final and a win in the final two events of the C.S. to secure qualification.

2024 WT surfers Deivid Silva (Brazil) and Jacob Wilcox (Australia), ranked 16th and 15th, respectively, can all but seal a spot on tour with a win at the US Open but, more importantly, must not finish worse than 9th to give themselves a chance heading into the final two events.

Meanwhile, Brazilian WT veteran Miguel Pupo at 11th (8385) must finish 9th or better from here on out to qualify.

On the women’s side, if last year is any gauge, the cut line will come in around the 22,000-point mark, meaning ratings leader Isabella Nichols (Australia) can qualify at this event with a ninth-place finish.

With a win at Snapper and a runner-up at Narrabeen, 16-year-old Erin Brooks can also lock her 2025 WT spot with a 9th at Huntington. Back-to-back semi-finals on the Gold Coast and Narrabeen has Aussie WT veteran Sally Fitzgibbon a semi-final finish away from a remarkable 15th World Tour season, as well as successful back-to-back C.S campaigns after being cut from tour in 2023 and 2024. Seventeen-year-old American Bella Kenworthy can also lock her spot with a semi-final finish at Huntington, while Tahitian Vahine Fierro will be hoping the Olympics is done and dusted by the time her heat hits the water at the US Open, where a runner-up finish will secure her a spot on Tour for 2025.

Related: The Snapper Challenger Series Event Was the Surf Contest the WSL Needed Badly