Delays, queues and 'Cinderella flights' – what will happen to air travel after a no-deal Brexit?

Many thousands of passengers could find their flights to Europe grounded by a no-deal Brexit at the end of March next year, the Government has warned. But is such a catastrophic scenario even possible? We break down the issues at stake and the agreements that keep British airlines flying in and out of the EU.

What agreements are needed to permit airlines to fly?

Countries around the world have different agreements with one another that allow airlines to fly international services. As an EU country, the UK and its airlines, such as British Airways, Jet2 and EasyJet, are covered by the internal market for air services, which means that any airline licensed by an EU country, and therefore adhering to common regulations, is entitled to operate any route within the EU without any advance permission. 

The agreement also extends to Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway through their membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), creating the the European Common Aviation Area, the ECAA.

More countries, including Turkey, Armenia and Ukraine, are part of the European Civil Aviation Conference, which seeks “to harmonise civil aviation policies”, but does not give permissions for flying. As you can see from the above map, there are a number of different European aviation agreements.

Broadly speaking, the UK’s position in all of the above is up for debate and, should that debate be wrapped up in the UK failing to secure a deal with the EU, British airlines could find themselves grounded by the loss of the automatic right to fly to the EU. 

Could airlines do their own deals?

In theory, yes, but that would be costly and confusing. However, a no-deal Brexit would mean airlines would need to seek individual permissions to operate. Similarly, EU-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate within the UK on domestic services.

The Government said it “would envisage” allowing EU airlines to keep flying and “we would expect EU countries to reciprocate in turn”.

So what is the likelihood of flights being grounded?

Given the impact it would have on businesses and thousands of passengers, it is in the interests of both the UK and EU to put together an emergency aviation agreement even in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

The bureaucratic logistics might mean, however, that even though flights are not grounded on March 30 next year, there might be some disruption to services if airlines have to rearrange their schedules.

The Government said: “It would not be in the interest of any EU country or the UK to restrict the choice of destinations that could be served, though if such permissions are not granted, there could be disruption.”

Capa, an aviation analyst, has said it will be a “disaster if no replacement for the existing traffic rights regime is negotiated”, adding that “the best possible outcome on market access would be keeping the status quo.”

Should I be worried about booking a flight for next year?

Despite an understanding between the UK, EU and all airlines involved that grounded flights the day after Brexit would be a disaster, Nick Trend, Telegraph Travel’s consumer editor, said that passengers should be cautious about booking flights departing or returning after March until we have more certain information.

“If you do book, bear in mind that you will have more security if you make arrangements through a tour operator - it will have a duty of care to look after you, and to refund all money if you are prevented from travelling by a hard Brexit,” he added.

“Independent travellers should get a refund of their airfare in the event of a cancellation, but are not entitled to refunds of any money paid in advance for hotels or villa abroad, for example.

“I personally will be avoiding any travel for at least a couple of weeks after March 29 because of the general risk of delays and disruption at borders.”

What is the ‘bare bones’ agreement?

The European Commission has already said as part of its preparation for a no-deal Brexit that it would put in place a “bare bones” aviation agreement with the UK to provide for connectivity.

Tim Alderslade, the chief executive of Airlines UK, which represents 13 carriers including BA, Virgin Atlantic, Norwegian and Ryanair, said: “Clearly the earlier the UK and Commission can discuss what a Bare Bones agreement looks like the better. It’s reassuring though that both sides are preparing for this contingency.”

Would flights outside of the EU be affected?

Potentially, but unlikely. The UK has air service agreements (ASAs) with 111 countries around the world, including China, India and Brazil, unaffected by Brexit.

There are, however, 17 non-EU countries whose right to fly in and out of the UK is governed by the UK’s EU membership. These nations include Canada, Switzerland and the US, under the US-EU Open Skies agreement.

Alderslade said that the Government has made progress in their discussions with many of the above countries to secure as “open and liberal arrangements as possible”.

“This will allow UK carriers to continue to serve these destinations – as they do now - following our departure from the EU,” he said.

The Government says that some arrangements have already been made so that “replacement agreements will be in place before exit day”.

Are airlines still selling tickets for next April?

Yes. Ryanair said earlier this year that it would add a Brexit caveat to its terms and conditions, stating: “This flight is subject to the regulatory environment allowing the flight to take place.”

But airlines are selling as usual.

Tim Alderslade said: “Airlines are clear that they will continue to sell tickets and operate as per normal – and once we leave the EU we support consumers having the same level of legal protection as they do now, and expect the current rules on compensation, delays and denied boarding to apply in the UK.”

What are ‘Cinderella flights’?

There are a number of flights that depart the UK late on March 29, while the UK is a member of the EU, but, while in the air, leave the EU and become subject to new legislation before they land.

British passengers will leave the UK as EU citizens but arrive in their destination needing to consider carefully which queue they join at passport control.

Among the few flights in this category is a British Airways service departing Heathrow at 7.25pm for Athens, landing at 11.05pm GMT, just five minutes after the Brexit deadline.

Will flight delay compensation be affected?

There is no guarantee that the current rules on compensation, as governed by EU regulation 261/2004, will stay the same. However, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), the UK’s governing aviation body, said that should the UK adopt “all current EU air transport safety regulations into UK law”, which is its preference, and remain part of the EASA, then it “would also mean that we maintain existing levels of consumer protection for passengers”.

Bott + Co, a law service that specialises in flight delay compensation, said “no one is 100 per cent certain what exactly will happen and when”.

The law firm believes that if the UK looks to change the law it could prompt legal challenges from airlines.

“If the government decides to adapt the Regulation or create its own version then that could well trigger a whole new series of legal challenges by airlines as the law is clarified once more,” it said.

What about air traffic control services?

The UK can handle up to nearly 9,000 flights a day in its airspace, including those just passing over, and is in a key position for thousands of transatlantic flights. This would not be under threat from a no deal, as it is enshrined in our international obligations as governed by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.