Election tipping points? Why these 6 factors could decide the White House

WASHINGTON ? After months of deciphering countless polls, up-and-down betting markets and a historic gender gap, the 2024 election is here ? and we will soon know whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next president.

More than 80 million people voted early, and about the same number are expected to head in person to the polls Tuesday to decide a razor-close election likely to come down to seven top battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.

Late-counted mail ballots, particularly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, mean we might not know the winner on election night.

It caps a wild sprint to Election Day between Trump, a twice-impeached and four times indicted former president, and Harris, the sitting vice president who only launched her campaign in late July after President Joe Biden dropped out. The race has seen two assassination attempts targeting Trump.

Here are six things to watch on Election Day that could be instrumental in deciding whether Harris or Trump wins:

How big will the gender gap be?

The 2024 race long ago turned into the "boys versus girls" election, with polls showing Harris performing significantly better among women and Trump among men.

Harris is vying to become the nation's first female president. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll taken Oct. 14 to 18 found Harris leading nationally 53%-36% with female voters and Trump leading by about the same margin, 53%-37%, with male voters.

Because women historically vote at slightly higher rates than men, the gender dynamic could give Harris an edge. Emphasizing the abortion fight post-Roe v. Wade, the Harris campaign has banked on winning female voters by large numbers to help carry Harris to victory.

Democrats are encouraged by early-voting turnout among women in which they outpaced men by about 9 percentage points nationally, roughly the same margin as the 2020 election when Biden defeated Trump.

Will Trump's bro vote come through?

To overcome Harris' dominance with women voters, Trump has targeted an oft-overlooked voting bloc: young men who lack college degrees.

Trump's appearances at UFC fights and a college football game. His Podcast interviews with Joe Rogan and internet celebrities and influencers Adin Ross, Theo Von and Logan Paul. His rollout of a Trump-branded sneaker. Trump's embrace of wrestling icon Hulk Hogan.

More: The bro vote: Trump and Harris duel over what it means to be a man in America

All of these activities ? and the in-your-face "machoness" displayed on the campaign trail ? have been aimed at a slice of the electorate the Trump campaign believes can help deliver the former president the election: male voters under 50 who were undecided in the lead-up to the election that make up about 11% of the electorate across the battleground states.

Many of these voters are considered low-information, low-propensity voters who do not closely follow every move in presidential elections and don't always vote. Trump needs them to turn out.

A silver surge for Harris?

Democrats have not carried seniors as a voting bloc in a presidential election since Al Gore in 2000, but polling suggests Harris might do so this year thanks to older women.

Some have called it a potential "silver surge" for Harris and the "granny gap."

In the October USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Harris narrowly led voters 65 or older 46%-44% over Trump nationally. An AARP national poll from late September found Harris ahead 54%-42% over Trump among senior women. Rising costs and protecting Social Security and Medicare are among senior women's top priorities, AARP found. But for many so is abortion ? perhaps remembering an America when they had greater reproductive rights than their daughters and granddaughters.

More: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

A stunning Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released over the weekend found Harris leading Trump in reliably red Iowa by three percentage points thanks in part to an extraordinary gap among senior women ? one that could propel Harris to victory if it plays out in the Midwest battlegrounds.

The poll found Harris leading senior women in Iowa by a wide 63%-28% margin and senior men 47% to 45%. The poll also found Harris leading among independent female voters 57%-29%.

Will Trump peel off Black and Latino voters?

Polling suggests the Trump campaign has made inroads in peeling off some Black and Latino voters ? two Democratic strongholds ? by targeting younger male voters in both groups.

If Trump expands his share of the Black vote by even a small sliver in urban centers such as Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, then Harris to win would need to make it up by building upon Democrats' recent gains among white college-educated voters in suburbs.

In 2020, Black voters supported Biden over Trump 92%-8%, according to exit polls, while Latino voters backed Biden 65%-32%. The October USA TODAY/Suffolk poll found Harris leading Black voters by a narrower 72%-17% margin. A national survey of Latino voters last week from Florida International University found Harris ahead 57%-33% with Latino voters, regaining some ground she had lost.

Harris leads Trump 84%-16% among Black voters in Pennsylvania and 75%-25% in Michigan, both underperforming Biden's margins, according to polling from Marist College last week. In Wisconsin, Marist found Harris has support from 63% of non-whites while Biden had support from 73% in 2020.

Yet the polls had Harris narrowly leading all three states ? because she is polling better than Biden with white voters: leading Trump 51%-47% with white voters in Pennsylvania, 51%-48% in Michigan and 50%-48% in Wisconsin. It suggests Harris could offset slippage among voters of color by expanding margins with white voters in suburbs.

A Puerto Rican backlash?

Some Puerto Rican voters have rallied around Harris after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage" at a recent Trump rally at New York's Madison Square Garden.

Could the backlash be strong enough to tilt the election in Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania boasts a growing population of more than 1 million Hispanic voters – 615,000 who are expected to vote – including a large group of Puerto Rican voters in Allentown, the state’s third largest city.

Harris leads Latino voters in Pennsylvania 64%-30%, according to a poll released Sunday by Noticias Univision and YouGov, and she leads Puerto Rican voters in the state 67%-27%. The poll also found most Pennsylvania Latinos, including Puerto Ricans, were offended by Hinchliffe’s joke – 67% of respondents said it was “more racist than humorous,” including 71% of Puerto Ricans.

Harris campaigned in Allentown on Monday as part of a day of traveling across Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground. With a close outcome in Pennsylvania expected, the state's Puerto Ricans could play a big role.

Will the 'blue wall' hold form or split?

As Harris and Trump try to secure the needed 270 electoral votes to win, the first place to look is the so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

The three Rust Belt state have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one of the presidential candidates sweeping all three. Biden won each in 2020 after Trump flipped the three "blue wall" states to the Republican column in 2016.

If Harris carries all three “blue wall” states Tuesday, then she would likely win the election even if she loses all four Sun Belt battleground states ? North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That's assuming Harris wins Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, where she is polling ahead, and all other states she is heavily favored to win. Harris would win the Electoral College 270-268 in this scenario.

But for Trump, a victory in any of the "blue wall" states ? but particularly the biggest prize, Pennsylvania ? would open multiple paths for him to secure reach 270 by pairing that win with victories in the Sun Belt states, where he has generally polled stronger.

For example, if Trump carries Pennsylvania – but loses Wisconsin and Michigan – he would win 271-267 in the Electoral College if he also wins three of the Sun Belt states.

Under this scenario, Harris would need to offset a Pennsylvania loss by carrying at least two Sun Belt states. It would mean Trump could lose one of either Georgia or North Carolina – which both have 16 electoral votes – and still win.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What could swing the election? 6 things that may decide the race