Will Biden drop out? Key questions on his presidential campaign
As he addressed reporters at the conclusion of the Nato conference on Thursday, Joe Biden sent a defiant message to his critics: I’m not going anywhere. Despite demands from dozens of Democratic lawmakers that he withdraw from the presidential race following his disastrous debate performance, Biden argued he was the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump in November.
“I think I’m the most qualified person to run for president. I beat him once, and I will beat him again,” Biden said. “There’s a long way to go in this campaign, and so I – I’m just going to keep moving.”
That message did not assuage some skeptics in Biden’s party, as three more House Democrats called on the president to drop out in the hours after the press conference. Biden and his team have not yet quieted critics’ concerns, but the president’s detractors have few options beyond their public pressure campaign to get him to step aside.
With just one month left before the Democrats convene in Chicago for their convention, the party has limited time to determine who will be on the top of the ticket in November.
Here’s what you need to know about Biden’s path forward:
How many Democratic lawmakers are calling on Biden to drop out of the race?
At least 19 congressional Democrats – 18 House members and one senator – have publicly called on Biden to withdraw from the race as of Friday morning. Although those lawmakers represent a relatively small fraction of the more than 200 Democrats on Capitol Hill, their damning statements have intensified scrutiny of Biden and his ability to serve another four years as president.
“I understand why President Biden wants to run,” Senator Peter Welch wrote in a Washington Post op-ed. “He saved us from Donald Trump once and wants to do it again. But he needs to reassess whether he is the best candidate to do so. In my view, he is not.”
What do voters think about Biden’s candidacy?
A clear majority of voters believe Biden should step aside, but Democrats specifically have more mixed views on the subject. According to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Thursday, 67% of Americans, including 56% of Democrats, say Biden should step aside and let someone else run for president.
In comparison, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last Tuesday showed 32% of Democrats saying Biden should withdraw from the race. If the proportion of Democrats calling on Biden to drop out continues to grow, the president’s already vulnerable position in the party could become untenable.
That being said, the concerns about Biden’s fitness for office do not appear to have fundamentally reshaped the race for the presidency. The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll showed Biden and Trump each capturing 46% of the vote, a result that is essentially unchanged since April. A hypothetical match-up between Trump and the vice-president, Kamala Harris, also appears to be a virtual tie, with 49% of voters supporting Harris and 47% backing Trump.
Has Biden given any indication that he plans to drop out?
No. Biden has instead planned a campaign blitz across the coming days to demonstrate his ability to deliver a convincing pitch for re-election. On Monday, he will visit Austin, Texas, to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, and he will also sit down for an interview with the NBC News anchor Lester Holt.
“I’m determined on running, but I think it’s important that I allay fears by letting them see me out there,” Biden said on Thursday. “I’m going out in the areas where we think we can win, where we can persuade people to move our way.”
Can Biden’s critics force him out of the race?
They have few options to do so. Presidential primary voting has already concluded in all US states, so the delegates going to the Democratic convention are the only people who can nominate another candidate at this point. But of the roughly 4,000 delegates bound for Chicago, nearly 3,900 of them are pledged to Biden because of his strong performance in the primaries.
Biden said on Thursday that the delegates pledged to him can “do whatever they want” at the convention, but it is a bit more complicated than that.
Elaine Kamarck, a member of the Democratic national committee rules committee and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, notes that current party rules state: “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”
Kamarck wrote on Thursday: “Few, if any, delegates to recent conventions have ever sought to test [the rule]. But if worries about President Biden’s ability to run and to serve continue to grow, along with fears of handing the presidency over to Donald Trump, some delegates may find themselves tempted to vote for someone else.”
How long does Biden have to decide if he will stay in the race?
The Democratic convention begins 19 August, but the party may formally nominate a candidate before then. Before Biden’s poor debate performance, the Democratic National Committee already planned to virtually nominate a candidate to meet an Ohio ballot deadline of 7 August, but no date has been officially announced for the roll call vote.
Because of the Ohio deadline, Democrats have even less time than it might appear to determine who their nominee will be.
What would happen if Biden did step aside?
If Biden withdraws from the presidential race, the more than 4,000 Democratic delegates will need to nominate another candidate to run against Trump in November. The winning candidate will need to secure the support of a majority of delegates to capture the nomination.
Harris would enter the nomination fight with an early advantage, as she has the largest national profile of any potential candidate and some Democrats have already named her as their preferred option. But Harris would not automatically become the nominee if Biden steps aside, as she would still need to win the necessary number of delegates. Other names floated as potential replacements for Biden include the California governor, Gavin Newsom, Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois governor, JB Pritzker.
Asked about Harris on Thursday, Biden said he had the utmost confidence in his vice-president, but he reminded reporters that any other Democratic candidate would enter the election with minimal time to introduce themselves and deliver a winning message to voters.
“I believe I’m the best qualified to govern, and I think I’m the best qualified to win,” Biden said. “There are other people who could beat Trump, too, but it’s awful hard to start from scratch.”
