Could Dan Osborn, an independent candidate from Nebraska, upend the U.S. Senate race?

Of all the competitive U.S. Senate races this year, Senator Deb Fischer, R-Nebraska, was expected to win reelection handily, where Trump won with roughly 58% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. But that was before Dan Osborn, a former union leader, decided to run for office as an independent.

In a state where Republican victories are almost always a given, Nebraska is now one of the top Senate races to watch in the Nov. 5 election as its outcome could determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll puts Osborn just two percentage points behind Fischer, 46% to 48%, with 5% of likely voters in Nebraska either undecided or refusing to answer. Other political tracking organizations, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, updated the contest to “leaning” versus “solidly” Republican.

Osborn, a veteran of the U.S. Navy and the Nebraska Army National Guard, has refused an endorsement from the state’s Democratic Party. Running as an independent candidate, his platform weaves issues from both sides of the political aisle: he supports the Second Amendment, advocates for protecting reproductive rights and wants to make it easier for unions to organize.

This race is the first time the Cornhusker native is dipping his toe in politics, which he stresses is one of his greatest strengths.

“It’s a story as old as time; if you can divide, you can conquer. Right now, I feel like we’re pretty divided,” Osborn recently told a crowd gathered at his Lincoln campaign office for an event highlighting his support from conservative Nebraskans.

“You can imagine the ramifications if Nebraska elects an independent candidate; the entire country is going to say, ‘Holy crap. Do you see what Nebraska did?’ It’s going to tell people all across the nation that you don’t have to be a self-funding crypto billionaire to run for office.”

In an election with historic political division, Osborn is marketing himself as a candidate with no allegiance to either party, often expressing his grievances over partisan gridlocks and ineffectiveness on Capitol Hill.

One question keeping both parties on their toes is whether Osborn will caucus with a party in the Senate. When asked about this, Osborn points to former Sen. George Norris, I-Nebraska, who was the last independent to represent the state in 1942. Norris didn’t caucus with either party and brought his nonpartisan nature back to Nebraska, where he helped found the state’s Unicameral legislature.

“We take pride in being different from other folks, but also independent,” explained Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

From the middle out

What was a relatively below-the-radar operation a few months ago, Fischer’s campaign has come out in full force to fire up her Republican base, with millions in funding from national Republicans and an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in her pocket.

The GOP is pouring millions into the race to hold onto a Republican seat in the upper chamber, including a recent $3 million contribution from a super political action committee aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky. The cash infusion to her campaign has allowed a barrage of expensive television ads portraying Osborn as a Democrat in disguise.

“My opponent supports amnesty, social security for illegal immigrants, and has said he loves Bernie Sanders—he’s simply too far left for our state,” Fischer said in a statement to USA TODAY.

“Nebraskans support me because I’ve delivered results: from supporting border security and a strong national defense, to funding roads, bridges, and airports, to helping make life easier for working families through my paid family medical leave law, I have a long, conservative record that’s helped build Nebraska and keep America strong.”

Fischer has deep roots in greater Nebraska, coming from a ranching background in Valentine, a town that hugs the state’s northern border. She held a string of public offices in the state, including seats in the Nebraska Legislature and on the Valentine Rural High School Board of Education, and is now running for a third term.

On the other hand, Osborn is focused on courting voters across all political parties, but is currently targeting Fischer’s conservative base by highlighting his commonalities with Trump.

“I tell people, whether I’m sitting in a room in Lincoln full of Democrats or I’m sitting in Hastings, Nebraska in a room full of Republicans or mixed people, my message doesn’t change,” Osborn told USA TODAY. “That’s that Republicans are not the enemy, Democrats are not the enemy, the corporations are the enemy.”

Besides fighting tooth and nail over painting one another as insincere, the candidates’ focus on union support is also at the forefront of this race.

Fischer has touted her support from unions across the state, including several police and firefighting organizations, as well as the Nebraska Farmers Union, which is endorsing multiple Democrats running for national office.

John Hansen, the President of NFU, defended Fischer explaining she has consistently prioritized the needs of farmers and ranchers in the state since her time in the state legislature and as a member of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee.

“Fischer is one of the few Republicans in Congress that is really been willing to step out and try to build bipartisan support to get her legislation through, and get it attached to the Farm Bill,” Hansen said. “We know each other well. We have a good, working personal relationship.”

Osborn has the backing of several unions and workers organizations, including the Nebraska AFL-CIO, United Auto Workers and Communications Workers of America and Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety.

One of the main reasons behind the NRPS’s support for Osborn stems from the frustration they faced when they couldn’t get in contact with Fischer’s office during a labor struggle with railroads in the state in 2022, according to Mike Helmink, the group’s co-founder and treasurer.

“I think the race has gotten a lot of attention because he’s a serious threat,” Helmink said. “I don’t think the Republicans saw this coming at all. They wanted to hope it died, and it’s done nothing but get bigger. It’s a good candidate, a good message and there’s so many tie-ins to so many people.”

Reuters contributed to the reporting of this story

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Could Nebraska's Senate seat be flipped by an independent?