Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says Dems shouldn't rebel against Biden

Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted the results of nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections, said Sunday that if Democratic delegates rebel against President Joe Biden and choose another Democratic nominee, it could spell chaos for the party.

There's no indication that Democratic delegates in large numbers would opt for another candidate to lead the party in November's election. But “Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream asked Lichtman what obligations Democratic delegates have “if President Biden says he’s not going to leave the ticket.”

Biden overwhelmingly won Democratic primaries in all 50 states this year, racking up thousands of delegates ahead of the party's convention next month.

“Delegates could, in fact, decide to replace President Biden, but based on history, that would be a disaster to have a convention brawl,” Lichtman, a professor at American University, argued on Sunday.

But the historian’s comments come as some Democrats have called on Biden to drop out of 2024 race after his rocky debate performance against former President Donald Trump last month.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or “keys.”

The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or “keys,” to lose the White House.

The keys range from whether a candidate is an incumbent president to the state of the economy and the presence of third-party hopefuls.

Debate performance, however, is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, Lichtman has previously argued. The professor said Sunday that Biden has already ticked two of the 13 keys, giving him an advantage over potential Democratic challengers. Those include already being an incumbent president and there being no “party contest” this year for Democrats.

Lichtman warned that Democrats could risk “setting up the same situation that led to the election of Donald Trump in the first place in 2016, an open seat with no incumbent running and a party contest.”

Biden has vowed that he’s staying in the 2024 race, and only a handful of Democratic lawmakers have publicly called on him to pass the torch.

Contributing: Karissa Waddick, USA TODAY

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Historian who predicts elections warns Dems about 'convention brawl'