Did conservatives win the battle on abortion but lose the culture war on life?

Did conservatives win the battle on abortion but lose the culture war on life?

For more than 50 years, abortion has been the conservative movement’s Pharos, the thing that guides them, angers them and motivates them, the moral and political issue of their time.

Two years ago they succeeded, when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, sending abortion back to the states. For today’s conservatives, that moment is unrivaled.

The reversal of Roe and state-by-state response didn’t create a tsunami of allies as perhaps the conservative movement hoped.

It’s still early, and laws take time to digest, to cement themselves into society. There is time for sentiment to shift. But the data right now is telling.

Data on abortion is clear. Overturning Roe didn't change our minds.

States responded to Roe’s reversal by implementing laws that vary as much as their residents’ views on abortion do: California, Colorado, Minnesota and New York have few, if any, abortion limits. Others – like Alabama, the Dakotas, Oklahoma and Texas – have essentially, if not completely, banned it.

According to the Guttmacher Institute, “14 states are enforcing total bans with limited exceptions.” The Arizona Supreme Court just upheld its 1864 abortion ban. The pattern is obvious: Blue states want abortion access, red states want to limit it.

A new March report from the Monthly Abortion Provision Study shows that more than 1 million abortions occurred in the formal health care system last year, a 10% increase since 2020 and the highest number of abortions in the United States in over a decade.

It also seems true that data shows there was an uptick in births as well – 129 births per 100,000 women, or 32,000 additional births based on the first six months of 2023 compared with 2022 – in states where abortion has been banned.

It’s not a bad thing to see more babies born, given that mom and baby are properly cared for, and especially in an era of overall declining birth rates.

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Gallup's 2023 abortion polling found that there’s a slight rise in the number of people who identify more as “pro-choice” (52%) than “pro-life” (44%). From 2007 to 2021, no more than 50% of Americans were "pro-choice."

Last year, 52% polled said abortion is morally acceptable.

In sum: More babies are being born in some states, more babies are being aborted in other states, and few have changed their minds dramatically.

Trends on abortion are discouraging for conservatives

For now, conservatives find themselves wrestling with this reality and, to be honest, it is discouraging. I had hoped, as a conservative woman, the tide would have turned more.

I have been surprised to see the hold abortion has had on the culture, and what’s more, what that actually means in practice: A lot of women don’t want children for various reasons.

Donald Trump, the de facto Republican nominee for president, already made his choice on abortion – one of many –when he announced on social media Monday that he doesn’t support a national ban on abortion.

“At the end of the day, this is all about will of the people,” Trump said in a video statement on Truth Social. He’s inconsistent, even though his stance on abortion is correct.

Trump has camped out briefly on every data point on the abortion graph, from supporting abortion to punishing women who get abortions and everywhere in between. Trump is not an ideologue, and his positions reflect political expediency, not moral clarity.

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Conservatives have seen this disparity on gun control. Ironically, conservatives use this argument – I have used this argument – and rightly so. We already have laws in place: How would more gun laws reduce gun crime?

Of course, it’s not quite the same. Abortion was basically legal, and that threshold of making it illegal had to be crossed. Conservatives hoped overturning Roe would flip a switch. But it didn’t.

Reversing Roe didn’t immediately change American culture and address why women are getting pregnant and having abortions. Of course, a law is incapable of doing that. This is not to slam or discourage conservatives who rabidly protect life, as I do.

All is not lost. It’s important to face reality, but also just as important to pivot when necessary. This may be one such time.

Conservatives have an opportunity to change the message around abortion

Conservatives must continue to address the problems in American life that abortion is an easy “fix” to. Casual sex, lack of birth control, a culture that glorifies career, travel, wealth and fame – anything, really – above being a mom and dad and raising kids.

Most women who have abortions do so in their first trimester because they are either unprepared to be a parent or already have a child. And in 2021, 56% used abortion pills, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

This means it’s also super convenient. Approximately 57% of women who had abortions in 2021 were in their 20s and 31% were in their 30s. Teenagers only accounted for 8%. It’s not a waste of time to talk to teens about abortion, but they’re not the largest demographic having them.

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Conservatives must continue to address lifestyle and cultural messages that encourage sex but result in pregnancy and abortion, that encourage relationships but not happy or committed enough ones to raise a child in, that encourage building a life but not doing so with children in it. There is no law that will do this, and that’s why this is much harder.

It wasn’t a mistake for conservatives to rally to reverse Roe. It was an objectively bad law to suggest the Constitution gives a woman the right to abort her child.

Since I was young, I watched conservatives attempt to create a culture of life through all kinds of measures, some poor, some effective. The work of reversing Roe came together through decades of grassroots efforts, like abortion education on college campuses, ultrasound machines in clinics and even scientific advancement that allowed women to realize – to believe – a fetus grows into a baby given time.

After years of focusing more on the unborn, in the last 10 years, conservative organizations began to focus more on mom – her needs and fears – often the reason she chooses to abort. Heartbeat laws put pressure on Roe and eventually, the right case challenged it at the Supreme Court. This is good, important work in changing culture that cannot change without upended law nor, as we can see, entirely with it.

But it is still important to realize nationwide bans or other similar policy won't instantly make Americans more anti-abortion. Conservatives do believe a culture of life is one that is robust, healthy and worthwhile. We must continue to promote it outside policy, now.

Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Roe reversal changed abortion law. But GOP needs to change the culture