How Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in Michigan

Former President Donald Trump won Michigan on Tuesday as part of a national wave election in which he widely outperformed his numbers from 2020, combined with factors that had particular resonance in Michigan, such as the war in Gaza and reduced intensity surrounding the abortion issue, according to experts and a Free Press analysis of election data.

Analysts say several factors contributed to Trump's Michigan victory. Many of those impacted Trump's performance across the nation, including concerns about the economy and inflation; 'culture war' issues such as transgender athletes competing in women's sports; issues related to immigration and the U.S.-Mexico border, and improved performance by Trump among Black and brown voters.

Michigan, which The Associated Press called as a win for Trump shortly before 1 p.m. Wednesday, fell in what was clearly a wave election. Trump won the other "blue wall" states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on his way to a return to the White House, while also winning the battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia, with Arizona and Nevada still too close to call as of Wednesday morning.

But three factors may have been particularly influential in Michigan: The Biden administration's support for Israel in the war in Gaza, which hurt Vice President Kamala Harris in the Dearborn and Hamtramck areas and may have also softened her support among young people in university cities; and the reduced urgency of abortion as a Michigan election issue after voters enshrined reproductive rights in the state constitution in 2022. The Biden administration's push toward electric vehicles was also widely seen as a threat to Michigan automotive jobs, said Pete Hoekstra, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party.

Trump flipped two Michigan counties that Biden won in 2020 — Muskegon and Saginaw — unofficial numbers show, while improving his performance in several Michigan counties he won in 2020, according to state records and unofficial results compiled by The Associated Press. Harris did not flip any Michigan counties that Trump won in 2020, based on unofficial results compiled by The AP.

Harris’s struggles in Michigan and across the country were inevitable, said David Dulio, a professor of political science at Oakland University.

“I think this election was about the economy, and more specifically, inflation,” he said. “I think immigration was a big factor and I think abortion was less of an issue than maybe we were led to believe.”

Dulio said issues like transgender rights may have mattered at the margins and the war in Gaza was a factor with Arab American voters. Trump visited Dearborn seeking votes there and he got them, winning the traditionally Democratic stronghold with Green Party candidate Jill Stein likely siphoning votes from Harris.

“I think that it is largely a protest vote over the Biden administration's policy toward Israel and the war in Gaza,” Dulio said. “I think I even saw some anecdotes from some voters that laid that out specifically that they don't want Trump, but they're not voting for Harris.”

Longtime metro Detroit political consultant Mario Morrow Sr., a Democrat, agreed the economy was pivotal for voters and said voters blamed her for things they didn’t like about Biden.

“I think that the Biden baggage weighed extremely heavy on the vice president,” Morrow said. “The spin was Harris and Biden's administration. All of a sudden, it became her administration.”

The economy likely drove Trump's gains among young men including minorities. Morrow said other factors unique to Harris also may have hurt her.

“I think sexism and racism played a large part,” he said. “The Republicans, in my opinion, felt they didn't feel comfortable with a woman, No. 1, and a black woman, No. 2, being the commander in chief.”

Morrow also said that Harris may have overplayed her hand on abortion rights.

“When she first started running, all she stood for was reproductive rights and the abortion issue,” he said. “A lot of men got turned off.”

Morrow said he was shocked by the election results.

“We've got a lot of healing to do, and it's going take some time,” he said. “We need a lot of people on both sides of the aisle to stand up and start that process.”

Bellwether Saginaw County extended its record of voting for the statewide winner in every presidential race since 1992. Based on 99% of the estimated vote, unofficial numbers showed Trump with 51% support in Saginaw County, compared with 48% for Harris, The Associated Press reported. Saginaw County backed Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016.

Near Detroit, Trump improved his performance in Macomb County, which has long been a popular window on Michigan politics for national pundits. Based on 99% of the estimated vote counted, Trump was leading Harris in Macomb 56% to 42%, compared with 53% to 45% in 2020.

Though numbers from Wayne County were lagging behind many other Michigan locales, Trump won the city of Dearborn, where 55% of residents are of Middle Eastern descent.

In Washtenaw County, home of the University of Michigan, based on 99% of the estimated vote counted, Harris had 71% support compared with just under 27% for Trump, according to unofficial results from AP. In 2020, Biden had 73% support compared with 27% for Trump.

Leelanau County near Traverse City, which has been a growth area for wealthy Michigan and Illinois residents, was one of relatively few counties around the nation where Harris performed better against Trump than Biden did in 2020.

Based on 99% of the estimated vote counted, Harris had 53% support in Leelanau, compared with just over 40% for Trump. In 2020, Biden won Leelanau, but in a much closer contest with Trump, 52% to 47%.

In some counties he won in 2020, Trump marginally increased his percentage of the vote while significantly increasing his total vote count.

In Dickinson County, for example, in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Trump was leading Harris 67% to 31%, based on 99% of the vote counted and estimates compiled by AP. In 2020, Trump beat Biden by a smaller margin, 66% to 33%, but Trump received only 9,617 Dickinson votes, compared with more than 10,300 votes Tuesday, an increase of more than 7%.

In Kent County in western Michigan, Harris also fell short of Biden’s 2020 margin of victory. With rounding, she won by 4 points, based on AP estimates compared with Biden’s 6-point win. In raw votes, her margin was about 4,800 votes smaller than Biden’s, records show.

Contact Paul Egan: 517-372-8660 or [email protected].

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Here's how Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in Michigan