ETSU professor: High elevations should wow leaf peepers, valleys may be mixed bag

JOHNSON CITY, Tenn. (WJHL) — Fall leaf color in the area mountains should be typically vibrant despite a hot, dry summer in the valleys — and an East Tennessee State University (ETSU) professor says even the low elevations could impress thanks to recent cool nights and sunny days.

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“The mountains should look pretty good,” Andrew Joyner, an associate Department of Geosciences professor and Tennessee’s official climatologist, told News Channel 11 Thursday, hours after the university released its first weekly fall color prediction.

“A lot of the area at the higher elevations and in this part in Northeast Tennessee have received closer to average rainfall.”

With elevations ranging from just over 1,000 feet to more than 6,500, the area typically has a long and varied fall color season. Throw in the diversity of species — trees common in northern forests still dot the higher elevations here — and the result is hard to beat, Joyner said.

“We live in one of the most biodiverse regions in the country, and that includes our tree species,” Joyner said. “Some may be more impacted by drought or temperatures and others aren’t impacted in the same way, and so it gives us that huge variety where you’re going to get some good color no matter what.”

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In a news release, ETSU arborist Travis Watson said the year’s first half was favorable with a mild spring. Summer got hot and very dry, and Joyner said trees can respond to those conditions by beginning to drop leaves and turn colors early.

“It can basically set off that response more quickly, and … oftentimes, if it’s going more quickly than it is more muted or brown,” Joyner said. Those conditions also contribute to leaf falloff, which could make the color a bit sparser at the lower elevations.

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If cool nights persist, though, Joyner said low-elevation color could still turn out pretty good. Recent rain may also help by reducing the number of leaves that drop early.

Recent nighttime temperatures have been a bright spot, especially for the lower elevations.

“Cool nights help the trees kind of change those colors and make them more vibrant,” Joyner said. “For the past several years we’ve had warmer evenings in the fall and that’s impacted leaf color.

“It seems like the nighttime temperatures this fall have been closer to normal … so that’s looking good.”

Joyner said the drought and heat were significantly worse further down the Tennessee Valley, meaning Knoxville and Chattanooga are likely to have much less color than Johnson City, Kingsport and the other low-elevation towns and cities in Northeast Tennessee.

The university will update its fall color prediction model weekly on Thursdays at the ETSU News site.

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