Forbes/HarrisX poll released hours before Election Day: See whether Trump or Harris leads
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in the latest Forbes/HarrisX national poll released late Monday.
Harris has a razor-thin 49%-48% lead over Trump among the 4,520 registered voters polled, with 3% preferring third party candidates. When respondents were asked to choose only between Harris and Trump, the vice president's lead grew slightly to 49%-47%, with 4% undecided.
The poll was taken online between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of ±1%.
Among respondents who said that they had already cast their vote, Harris led Trump 56%-40%, according to the poll.
"Price increases/inflation" was among the most important issues for respondents, with 36% of those surveyed saying it was top of mind. Immigration and the economy followed with 32% and 31% of respondents, putting them at the top of their list, respectively. Abortion came in as the fourth-most important, with 16% of respondents saying it was one of their top issues.
"The race will come down to turnout tomorrow, especially for Trump," Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, an analytics company with no ties to Kamala Harris, told Forbes. "Trump has historically outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2020 due to his ability to get low propensity voters to show up and win the voters on the fence who make up their mind at the last minute."
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Forbes/HarrisX presidential race poll: Is Trump or Harris in the lead?