A GOP presidential candidate hasn't won Minnesota in decades. Could it go purple in 2024?
MINNEAPOLIS — Minnesota might not be one of the popular, sought-after swing states, but its blue hue could turn purple this year.
The national polls show a close race in the country's most sought-after states, but could disaffection and close margins in Minnesota create a second-tier battleground state?
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Here's what you need to know.
Is Minnesota battleground territory?
Technically, no. Though there's not an official definition, swing states are usually categorized by their extremely small margins of win. In 2020, seven states were won by less than three percentage points.
Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Despite Biden winning Minnesota's ten electoral points by 7% in 2020, experts say it won't be easy this year.
"Trump almost won Minnesota in 2016, and he's talked about fighting for it in 2024," political scientist Lawrence Jacobs told the St. Cloud Times. "I think it's a battleground state."
The 2016 election was just one of several elections in Minnesota that came close to flipping.
Jacobs, the founder and director of the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said Minnesota is in its own grouping of concerning states for Democrats in November.
This isn't the only poll showing a close race in Minnesota. The past three polls from KSTP all found Biden leading within the margin of error, all by less than four percentage points.
The 81-year-old faces criticism over his age and mental fortitude and is fighting consistently low approval ratings and dissatisfaction from voters in his own party.
"These are tight margins, and you can't afford to have tens of thousands of otherwise Democratic voting citizens not showing up and casting a ballot," Jacobs said.
In Minnesota's presidential primary, almost 46,000 voters used their ballots to cast a protest vote against the president and his support of the Israel-Hamas war. In 2016, Clinton's margin of win was less than 45,000 votes.
"Clearly, the Biden administration has got its hands full," Jacobs said.
Why hasn't a Republican presidential candidate won Minnesota in decades?
A Republican hasn't won a presidential election in Minnesota since 1972, when President Richard Nixon was re-elected.
More: A look at the closest Minnesota presidential election races in the last 50 years
Democrats currently have a trifecta, but control over the legislative chambers and governor's seat have gone back and forth over the decades and Republicans currently represent half of Minnesota's congressional delegation.
What does this say about the state's ideological makeup?
"I think that reflects the fact that the Republicans are more efficiently distributed in the state," Jacobs said, "and the [outer metro areas are for the] Democrats who win by these large margins."
Can Biden hold onto Minnesota?
Biden and his team know winning Minnesota is going to be a fight, and they've been gearing up.
Last month, the campaign hired for their state operation three heavy hitters: Former campaign manager for Amy Klobuchar Justin Buoen, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Minnesota Senator Tina Smith and Democratic National Committee member Ron Harris.
More: Biden beefing up: Campaign hires big shots for MN operation
Biden has campaigned in the Midwest since the start of his re-election campaign, making stops in Minnesota in November and January, and Vice President Kamala Harris made a historic stop at a St. Paul abortion clinic.
Trump has yet to campaign in Minnesota, spending numerous days a week making appearances in courtrooms for the various criminal trials against him.
"I think it's an indicator that the Biden administration is gearing up for a very close election in which Minnesota is going to be one of the battleground states."
— Sam Woodward is the Minnesota elections reporting fellow for USA Today. You can reach her at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on St. Cloud Times: Is Minnesota now a battleground state?: What you need to know
