A guide to California’s sleeper House battlegrounds
Californians tuned into the state’s competitive House battles are likely aware of the white-hot races in the Central Valley and Southern California that could swing the balance of Congress.
But what about the lesser-known contests that are still getting money and attention from party bigwigs?
Meet the “wobblers.”
We’ve identified a handful of House races throughout California that are still generating campaign action, even if the incumbents are considered likely to hold onto their seats.
Take a spin through our political junkie’s guide to these sleeper races.
District 3: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D)
Kiley’s massive Northern California district is rated “likely Republican” by House race-watchers. But that doesn’t mean Morse, the Democratic challenger, couldn’t do some damage.
“It's a competitive district,” Dave Gilliard, Kiley’s campaign consultant, told Playbook. “It's a district that I think needs to be taken care of from a political standpoint.”
Ad buys are cheaper in the district’s more rural media market. But the fact that it stretches from Lake Tahoe down to Death Valley — and includes portions of suburban Sacramento — makes it a challenging place to run a campaign.
And Kiley has spent accordingly. His campaign and outside groups had dropped more than $1.6 million on ad buys as of Wednesday, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
Kiley’s opening message was surprisingly warm and fuzzy fare from a candidate known for his sharp jabs at Gov. Gavin Newsom and other state Democrats. It played up the congressmember’s bipartisanship and efforts to protect Lake Tahoe, promote water projects and help wildfire and flood victims.
Morse, on the other hand, came out swinging in her first spots, attacking Kiley’s stance on abortion rights and saying he voted against money for wildfire prevention.
“No one's really litigated Kiley’s record at scale,” said Morse, who previously served as a high-ranking forestry official at the state Natural Resources Agency. “So he's pretending like he's somebody who's delivering for the district.”
The on-air attacks forced Kiley’s campaign to respond quickly. Today, the GOP representative came out with an ad blasting Morse as dishonest and saying she is lying about her claim that he wants to ban abortion nationwide.
Gilliard doesn’t think Morse has the funds to keep spending at the same rate throughout the last weeks of the campaign. Kiley has maintained a sizable cash advantage in the race, based on mid-year filings.
Morse is not part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue program, which focuses on flippable seats, but party leaders are still showing their support.
Los Angeles Rep. Adam Schiff — who has time to campaign for House candidates, now that his Senate race against Republican Steve Garvey is all but sewn up — has stumped for her. He plans to come to Morse’s district in October to help with get out the vote efforts, according to her campaign.
District 9: Rep. Josh Harder (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R)
This Democratic-leaning Stockton-area seat held by Harder is the undercard compared with must-win Central Valley fights in GOP Reps. John Duarte’s and David Valadao’s districts.
Yet Republicans are bullish that Lincoln could snag an upset, given he pulled off a 13-point ouster of well-known incumbent Democrat Michael Tubbs in Stockton’s 2021 mayoral race. Lincoln told Playbook that Speaker Mike Johnson visited his district as part of a Central Valley fundraising swing in August.
Johnson in a statement to Playbook called Lincoln “one of the top candidates in the nation this cycle who can flip a seat.”
“I have an incumbency advantage just as much as Josh Harder does because I’m the mayor of the largest city in the district,” Lincoln said.
That optimism resonates in ad spending, where the National Republican Congressional Committee has funneled nearly $650,000 into a broadcast spot highlighting Lincoln’s background as a pastor and Marine veteran, according to AdImpact. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to invest in ads supporting Harder.
But Harder, a formidable fundraiser, boasted a war chest five times larger than Lincoln’s as of June 30. And despite jumping into a new district in 2022, Harder notched a 10-point victory that outpaced margins for other California Democrats on the ballot in his district that year, including Newsom and Sen. Alex Padilla.
Harder is looking to maintain his strength in November with messaging that directly speaks to residents’ frustrations with high costs. In a recent ad, he even included a dig at Democratic-controlled Sacramento, which he said has done “nothing” to curb rising utility prices.
“The enthusiasm right now is incredible,” he told Playbook, citing a recent uptick in campaign volunteers. “It's clear our message of lowering prices is resonating.”
District 40: Rep. Young Kim (R) vs. Joe Kerr (D)
This Orange County contest is probably the least competitive of our wobbler races.
Kim, the incumbent, has vastly outraised and outspent her Democratic challenger, Kerr, who has yet to air a broadcast ad as of today, according to AdImpact.
Still, she is not taking any chances. So far, more than $3 million has been spent on ads bolstering the GOP congressmember, including spots from outside groups.
The district is considered strongly Republican — and while President Joe Biden won it by just under 2 points in 2020, Kim beat her Democratic opponent by nearly 14 percent two years later.
Like Kiley, Kim used her ad to paint a picture of bipartisan cooperation. It features community members talking about why they have her support, and it shows the congressmember talking to law enforcement officers, a motorist at a gas pump and a group of voters at a restaurant.
Ad spending for Kerr has totaled a mere $709, according to AdImpact. That kind of money barely buys a postage stamp in the district’s media market and shows the uphill battle Kerr faces in this election.
District 49: Rep. Mike Levin (D) vs. Matt Gunderson (R)
Abortion is the hot topic in this wealthy, Democratic-leaning district lodged between Orange and San Diego counties and held by Levin.
Gunderson, a car dealership owner, has pitched himself to voters as pro-choice, joining a small but growing legion of Republicans who hope a softer abortion stance can neutralize a weakness that’s haunted the GOP since the 2022 midterms.
In his first TV spot, not-so-subtly titled “Pro-Choice,” Gunderson issued a vintage Clintonian decree that abortion “should be safe, legal and rare” over footage of him with his wife and four daughters.
But Levin is out to poke holes in Gunderson’s pro-choice lifeboat. His campaign launched a TV ad today that picks apart the Republican’s position and leans heavily on Planned Parenthood to boost Levin’s abortion-rights credentials.
“Our opponent continues throwing every lie at the wall to see what sticks,” Levin campaign manager Adam Berkowitz told Playbook.
Gunderson’s campaign told Playbook that Levin’s ad misrepresents his views and lacks context. “I have always been pro-choice and always will be,” he said.
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