Harris, Trump deadlocked in battleground Michigan, new exclusive poll shows

Less than a week before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are deadlocked in the battleground state of Michigan, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

Harris and Trump are tied, 47% to 47%, a statewide poll of 500 likely voters shows. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted between Oct. 24 and 27.

In Kent County, Michigan, which has been a bellwether for the state, Harris leads Trump 47% to 46% among 300 likely voters, the poll shows. The results are within the poll's 5.7 percentage point margin of error, meaning her lead could have happened by chance.

"It is that razor-thin," said David Paleologos, a pollster who directs Suffolk University's Political Research Center and oversaw this USA TODAY poll on Michigan. "We have a true margin of error race."

In 2016, Trump beat Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton in Kent County by 48% to 45%, mirroring his victory in the state overall. In 2020, Democratic nominee Joe Biden beat Trump 52% to 46% and won the state race.

More on presidential polls: See latest polls on Harris vs. Trump with 6 days to go

"Kent County could be a determining factor," Paleologos said. "The county and the state are correlated. For example, if Harris wins Kent County by three or four percent, she could win the state by three percent if the county voting is true to form based on past elections."

With 15 electoral votes at stake, Michigan is among seven important swing states Harris and Trump are vying for to propel them to the presidency. The Wolverine state is considered a “Blue Wall” state, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which had been Democratic staples for decades. In 2016, Trump flipped the three states in his upset presidential win. Four years later, Joe Biden won all three back.

Today, Michigan and the other six swing states all are too close to predict, as is the nation as a whole, USA TODAY/Suffolk polls suggest.

In Michigan, there are eight presidential candidates on the ballot including longshot third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West who each garnered about 1% in the USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll.

Kennedy dropped out of the race in August and is backing Trump, but his name will remain on the ballot in Michigan after the Supreme Court rejected his request Tuesday that he be taken off there and in Wisconsin. Kennedy does not want to draw votes away from Trump in those states.

But Paleologos said that could turn out to be the case.

"Normally, you would laugh at an opponent getting 1% of the vote, but in a race like this where it is tied and this close, you’re definitely not laughing about that," Paleologos said. "Any one of those three third-party candidates, given their 1% could make a big difference in Michigan and therefore the entire election."

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Voters have strong likes, dislikes

Linda Randle, 68 of Lathrop Village, Michigan, said she has already voted for Harris, believing the Democratic nominee will do right by all Americans.

"I really believe she has the best interests of people no matter what side of the political aisle they are on," Randle said. "All of the plans, especially her economic and housing plans are not only going to help Democrats, but Republican voters and those with no party affiliation at all. As long as you are qualified, it’s going to help you."

A retired administrative assistant for an automotive supplier and mother of two adult sons and three adult grandchildren, Randle, a Democrat said she encourages as many people as she can to vote, no matter their candidate of choice.

"All I want is for the U.S. to come together and stop all of this hating and whatever issues we have to sensibly talk this out instead of trying to outdo each other," she said. "That’s my prayer, that we come together as a country."

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Ben Gottwald, 34, of Traverse City, said he intends to vote for Trump, hoping the former president can boost the economy and rein in spending.

"He’s not a perfect candidate by any means," Gottwald said. "I thought he did the best he could the first time around. My biggest complaint was he spent too much money and that sent America massively into a deficit."

A Marine Corps veteran who spent nearly eight months in Afghanistan more than a decade ago, Gottwald said he's frustrated with both Democrats and Republicans' inability to function in Congress. He believes some politicians are in it "to fatten their pockets and nobody wants to give up their gravy train."

"Nothing ever changes because it's mutually beneficial between them and the lobbyists," Gottwald said.

A building contractor, Gottwald said he's hearing more Americans say they would like to buy a home, but can't afford it, which takes "money out of my pocket." He believes the housing market was more stable when Trump was in office.

"It used to be the American Dream to buy a home, a sense of accomplishment, and gain some equity. Now it’s looking to be more and more out of reach."

Charles Swanson, 32, of Auburn Hills, Mich., said he voted for Harris partially out of a dislike for Trump.

A married physician who practices internal medicine and pediatrics, Swanson said he likes that Harris takes climate change seriously and wants to keep supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia, something he thinks Trump and his running mate JD Vance won’t do.

“She seems like someone who’s sensitive and cares about people,” said Swanson, a Democrat who admits having “mixed feelings” about Harris. “While I like the foreign policy ideas she’s supporting, I’m not a big fan of her economic and immigration policies. I don’t think she handled the border situation that great, either.”

But Harris has done enough “to earn my vote,” compared to Trump, Swanson said.

“He tried to overthrow the government in the last election which seems disqualifying to run this time around,” Swanson said. “I also disliked the general lawlessness of his administration, the corruptedness and his criminal convictions.”

Jolynn Harris, 73, of Adrian, Michigan, said she plans to vote for Trump this week to avoid Election Day lines. The retired sales worker for a manufacturing company wants Trump to pick up where he left off.

“Well, I don’t need him to be my best friend or anything. I just need him to get things done,” said Harris, a Republican for more than 40 years. “Trump lowered our taxes and started to build the wall on the southern border. He’s got some work to do.”

A married mother of five adult children and 11 grandkids, Harris said she’s not impressed with the Vice President and doesn’t feel compelled to vote for her just because she’s a woman.

“I just want somebody competent and I don’t think she is,” Jolynn Harris said. “She’s not presidential material to me.”

Harris said she will be happy when the election is over.

“I think a lot of us will be. I hope there will be some stability in our country going forward. We could use it,” Harris said. “I just think we’re in a big mess right now and it will take more than four years to straighten it out.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Exclusive poll: Harris and Trump in 'razor-thin race' in Michigan