What Kamala Harris Could Mean for Tariffs and Clean Energy

Kamala Harris’ acceptance Thursday night of the Democratic party’s nomination for president now has eyes focused on what election promises are realistically doable should she win.

Jaret Seilberg, a managing director at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, on Friday gave her the edge in an election over former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. Because she’s never had to cut a deal with progressives to win the nomination, Seilberg said that has allowed her to focus the campaign more on moderates.

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“We also believe she will be effective at turning out minority constituencies in key sates,” Seilberg said. “Yet we have learned never to count Trump out.” He said that Trump’s experience as a more seasoned campaigner than Harris could matter as the two head into their debate in a few weeks.

The outcome of other election races around the country would likely result in a divided government. He expects the Republicans will take the Senate. “That would further limit the ability of Harris to confirm progressives as regulators if she were to prevail in November,” he said. And with Republicans taking the Senate, that would give them a key role when Congress tackles tax legislation next year, Seidel said.

Jefferies’ Aniket Shah believes that the most actionable policies include continuing antitrust enforcement, reduce hidden fees such as capping late credit card fees, develop AI guidelines via the AI Safety Institute, and re-shore supply chains for critical materials and technologies against China. While the re-shoring for critical materials doesn’t apply directly to fashion, some materials such as lithium could have an impact on factory operations or inputs that manufacturers need.

Shah is a managing director and global head of environmental, social and governance and sustainability research at Jefferies Group. He cited to a 92-page-long document that puts forth the overall policy vision of the Democratic Party.

Among those other policy proposals, even if these may require legislative action, include continuing to address China’s unfair trade practices and diversifying the economic relationship between countries other than China.

Harris’ tariff policies are expected to be a continuation of President Joe Biden’s policies, including keeping Section 301 rates in place. But Shah said non-tariff measures, particularly “Country of Origin Labeling,” could become more stringent.

And a Harris administration could see progress on increasing employment-based immigration by 250,000 over five years, as well other actions that foster advancements in clean energy.

Harris has said that the current administration’s investments in clean energy, infrastructure and manufacturing could bring back 16 million new jobs.