Kamala Harris Gets Big Debate Bump Over Trump in Swing States
Pollsters and data scientists are all over the map on what to make of a new poll that finds Kamala Harris with a substantial lead over Donald Trump in two crucial battleground states.
In Pennsylvania, which comes with 19 electoral votes, Harris leads Trump, 51 percent to 45 percent—outside the margin of error, according to the survey released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University. Last month, Harris had just a three-point lead. In Michigan, the poll has her leading Trump 50 percent to 45 percent with the candidates essentially tied in the third battleground of Wisconsin.
“Three crucial swing states wave a red flag at the Trump campaign,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.
Political polling guru Nate Silver declared Wednesday to be a “very good day of polling” for the vice president. But the race is still a toss-up, he said. “One caution is that Quinnipiac polls have been Democratic-leaning in recent years,” he and fellow elections analyst Eli McKown-Dawson wrote.
Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz threw shade at the meaning (or meaninglessness) of the new poll, suggesting to his social media followers that Quinnipiac may be overinflating its numbers.
For what it’s worth, the @QuinnipiacPoll Pennsylvania poll had Biden up +8 in August 2020 and +13 in October 2020. (Biden won the state by +1.2)
???? https://t.co/IHUVc3hN9v https://t.co/Jtqjvhyvsr— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 18, 2024
But Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller is leaning toward thinking Harris could win in a landslide in November.
Harris continues to call herself the “underdog” and reminds supporters on the campaign trail that she isn’t taking anything for granted. She told the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s Leadership Conference on Wednesday afternoon that she expects a tough fight ahead.
“I thank you in advance for your work to register people to vote and get people to the polls,” she told the crowd.
But the poll does suggest Harris is in a strong position. Quinnipiac’s Malloy said it shows Harris earning trust with voters on the economy and immigration, areas where Republicans have previously been favored.
“Likely voters now see little daylight, in most cases, between Harris and Trump on who can best handle those key issues," Malloy said.
The poll was conducted between Sept. 12 and Sept. 16, in the days following the presidential debate, which even Trump supporters agreed Harris resoundingly won. She baited and laughed at Trump as he ranted about conspiracy theories involving Haitian immigrants allegedly eating pet dogs and cats.
On Wednesday, Harris was still laughing about the former president’s performance.
“I’m sure many of you saw the debate,” she said as the crowd at the CHCI Leadership Conference cheered. “On that point about the Affordable Care Act—all based on ‘concepts of a plan!’” (She chuckled as she put air-quotes around Trump’s phrase.)
“Concepts,’ concepts!” she exclaimed. “Their Project 2025 agenda would pull our nation backward.”
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