Kamala Harris' plan to add 3 million housing units is an 'ambitious' 50% jump, experts say

A standout campaign issue for the 2024 presidential election has been housing affordability.

Amid a housing market with rising rents and home-buying out of reach for many Americans, both Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump have vowed to make housing more affordable should they take the White House.

Part of Harris' solution is to build 3 million more homes over four years, as she has repeatedly brought up on the campaign trail.

"Harris has really focused on saying, the federal government needs to find ways with local state and federal government agencies to encourage additional housing production," said Yonah Freemark, a researcher with the Urban Institute. "There is some evidence that increasing availability of homes is associated with somewhat lower prices. I don't think it's the only solution to increasing affordability, but it is an important element of it."

Between new construction delays during the pandemic and people holding onto their homes due to high interest rates, the lack of supply helped contribute to rising prices of homes.

"It's not only that there aren't enough homes, there aren't enough affordable homes in the places where people want to live," said economist Kyle Moore with EPI Action, pointing out that many new luxury units that developers build are unaffordable for many renters.

More: Inside Trump's and Harris' starkly different visions for the economy

How does Harris plan to increase housing units?

In an August memo, the Harris campaign laid out a plan to add 3 million to new housing units to address the shortage.

"Vice President Harris will work in partnership with industry to build the housing we need, both to rent and to buy, and to take down barriers that stand in the way of building new housing, including at the state and local levels," the memo states and outlines the following methods:

• A new tax incentive for building starter homes

• Expanding tax incentives for businesses that build affordable rental housing

• Double the Biden-Harris proposed innovation fund for local initiatives to solve housing issues

• Cut red tape and streamline permitting processes to get houses up quicker

3 million units on top of the baseline is a 50% increase

A Harris campaign official explained the 3 million units she is promising for a first term is in addition to the new construction already fueled by the market. The Biden administration had proposed 2 million additional units.

U.S. Census data of new privately-owned housing units completed annually shows the number of homes dropped dramatically after the 2008 housing market bubble burst and climbed back to a post-crash high in 2023.

In the four years between 2020 and 2023, nearly 5.5 million new housing units were completed, according to the Census data. If the U.S. matched that as a baseline for the next four years, Harris' plan would mean an approximate 50% increase.

"A 50% increase in housing construction is pretty ambitious," Freemark said. "Having a jump of that level would be quite difficult, not just because of the need for financing, funding, etc, but also because of the supply chain, the construction labor that you would need to actually build the homes and apartments that we're talking about."

He also said Harris' plan as of now may not be able to overcome those challenges, but noted ambiguous parts of the plan could allude to additional methods to meet the need.

Hurdles to Harris' 3 million new units plan

Some part of the housing crisis caused by high interest rates keeping people locked into their mortgages could resolve itself regardless of who takes office, as the Fed just announced the first interest rate cut in four years.

But experts cautioned trouble in other parts of Harris' plan.

As Freemark pointed out, these plans require Congressional approval and that could depend a lot on the partisan makeup that shakes out of the elections. Also, local governments may object to federal guidance on their zoning and permitting laws.

Where and how these housing units get built would also impact the program's success.

"I think key in that policy... is that they are built in the places where jobs are," Moore said, adding that the units still need to adhere to safety regulations and sustainability practices.

As Americans spend a growing amount of their income on rent and home-ownership is one of the last remaining avenues to safely build wealth, the stakes for solving the crisis are high.

"There's that element missing as well, on top of just (the) fundamental right to access shelter and a home...it's really critical to both economy mobility and economic security," Moore said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Harris housing plan has 3 million more units, a 50% jump from baseline