Montana doesn't usually decide elections. It could hold all the cards for the Senate.
WASHINGTON – Montana isn’t typically the state that decides elections. But this year, it holds all the cards – at least for the U.S. Senate.
In just one week, Montana voters will choose between a Republican former Navy SEAL new to politics, or a third-generation farmer and incumbent Democrat hoping to prove the polls wrong.
Montanans' pick will likely determine which political party controls the upper chamber for at least the next two years, as Democrats battle for every single seat to hold their majority.
Democrats control the Senate by a narrow margin of 51-49, so Republicans only need to win two seats to flip the chamber. One is already all but guaranteed: Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is retiring at the end of his term, leaving a safe spot for Republicans in the Mountain State.
Democratic Montana Sen. Jon Tester is Republicans’ next best target.
He’s represented Montana in the Senate for 18 years. In that time, he’s become an oddity in his own state: Republicans have swept both chambers of the state legislature and all other statewide offices, including the positions of governor, attorney general, secretary of state and the other U.S. Senate seat. The last time the state opted for a Democrat for president was 1992, despite having a Democratic governor from 2005 to 2020.
Less than 20 years ago, Montana was narrowly Republican, but it has shifted to deep red. For example, the state chose Sen. John McCain over then-Sen. Barack Obama by only 3 percentage points in 2008, but selected former President Donald Trump over now-President Joe Biden by 16 percentage points in 2020.
Tester has managed to hold on through those changes, beating his GOP opponents by 3.5 percentage points in 2018 and 3.7 percentage points in 2012.
But Republicans – and election forecasters – are expecting this time to be different. Tester’s previous victories relied on a vanishing breed of voters willing to support candidates of different parties for president and for Senate, also known as a ticket splitter.
He’s up against Tim Sheehy, a veteran and wealthy entrepreneur. Sheehy was personally recruited to run by GOP Sen. Steve Daines, the other Montana senator who leads the Senate's campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Sheehy's resume and support from the state's prominent GOP leaders are an indicator Republicans believe he’s a formidable candidate that gives them a good shot against the battle-tested incumbent.
So far, polls indicate they may be right: Sheehy has consistently led Tester in state surveys. But Democrats hope that Tester’s deep ties to the state and major fundraising will help him hold his seat, and help the party hold the Senate.
Tester’s “got such a machine – Democratic politics in Montana revolve around him,” said Chuck Denowh, a Montana political strategist and former executive director of the Montana GOP.
But as Montana's voters have moved further to the right, Denowh explained, “he gets lumped in with what the Democrats are doing in Congress. So people are concerned about the economy or the border or some of the social issues. And all those issues nationally break against Tester when it comes to Montana.”
A farmer vs. a Navy SEAL
Tester, 68, is a third-generation farmer who works the land his grandfather first homesteaded at the beginning of the 20th century.
He started in Montana state politics in the late 1990s and served in the state Senate before being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006. He serves on the powerful Appropriations Committee, helping control the purse strings for the country, and leads the Senate’s Veterans Affairs committee.
He’s pitched himself as an independent lawmaker who has pushed back against members of his own party on issues like immigration, including touting a history of "collaborating with former President Donald Trump to secure the southern border." He’s worked to separate himself from the national Democratic Party and has not endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, though he has aligned himself with a voter initiative to protect abortion rights.
Sheehy is using a Trump-backed playbook in 2024: Running as a political outsider who would oppose Democratic leadership in Washington. His campaign has focused on issues such as finishing the southern border wall and limiting migration, curbing inflation by rolling back energy regulations and protecting gun rights.
Sheehy, 38, grew up in Minnesota before joining the Navy, becoming a SEAL and receiving a Purple Heart. He and his wife moved to Montana in 2014, where he founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company. He also owns a ranch in the middle of the state.
His net worth is up to $290 million, according to his most recent financial disclosure. If elected, he would be one of the wealthiest members of Congress. Tester has a net worth of up to $6.5 million.
Neither candidate responded to a request for an interview for this story.
While Sheehy has the advantage this cycle, said Democratic political consultant Matt McKenna, Tester has repeatedly survived tight races where he looked vulnerable, relying on his long-term, deep connections to the state.
“Anyone who has ever bet on the conventional wisdom in Washington has lost money at some point” betting against Tester, McKenna said.
Campaign sore spots
Both candidates have sought to highlight the other's weaknesses as the campaign grinds closer to Election Day.
During the candidates’ debate in late September, Tester hammered Sheehy for repeating offensive stereotypes about Native Americans – a key voting bloc in the state. Sheehy said his comments were “insensitive” but said he comes from the military, where “off-color jokes” are common.
Sheehy has also faced scrutiny over a gunshot wound in his right arm, which he said came from friendly fire in Afghanistan but did not report at the time. Years later, he told a park ranger in Glacier National Park that he had inflicted the wound himself by accident. Sheehy has said he did not disclose the wound while he was in Afghanistan to protect his platoonmates.
Sheehy has attacked Tester for being one of the top recipients of lobbyist cash in Congress and argued that he has been a rubber stamp for President Joe Biden’s agenda. Tester voted with Biden 91% of the time in 2021 and 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight, and 94.6% of the time in 2023, according to ABC News.
The candidates have also both sought to address a particular pain point for Montanans: The influx of out-of-staters who have moved to Montana since the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent skyrocketing price of housing.
Median home sale prices in Montana increased by 77.8% between May 2019 and May 2024, according to Redfin.
Tester has sought to paint Sheehy as one of those “rich out-of-staters” that has contributed to high costs of living for Montanans and has said the government should offer tax credits to incentivize building. Sheehy has said deregulation is necessary to speed up building and bring down housing costs.
Housing has also become a major issue in the presidential election. Harris has released several proposals to address the housing crunch, including offering people $25,000 toward a down payment for their first house. Trump has also called for cutting regulations for home construction and providing tax incentives for homebuyers.
Flush with cash
Tester has aimed to make the race about Montana, despite the increasing national attention the state has received in recent months.
Still, the battle between Sheehy and Tester has widespread implications for policymaking depending on which party wins control of the Senate. Republicans are hoping they can win the chamber and pave the road for Trump's agenda if he clinches reelection – and vice versa for Democrats and Harris.
Whichever party wins the Senate will also have power over the process for confirming a president's Cabinet officials and judges, from federal district courts up to the U.S. Supreme Court, where four of the nine justices will soon be in their 70s.
That has made the Montana race one of the most expensive in the country. Tester has spent more than $83 million this cycle, while Sheehy has spent around $22 million, according to the latest campaign finance filings.
But outside spending has significantly boosted both campaigns: Outside groups have spent $76 million supporting Tester and opposing Sheehy, while $79 million has been spent supporting Sheehy and opposing Tester.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How Montana's Senate race could hold all the cards