We must rise to the challenge of a ‘pre-war world’ – and quickly
We are at a dangerous point in history. The need to deter against the threat of an all-out war is more pressing than it has been for a generation. With the Defence Secretary stating that we have entered a “pre-war world”, where we must replace idealism with “hard-headed realism”, the vital importance of that deterrence has never been clearer.
Across the Western world, the voices calling for us to be ready for war have grown louder. Some senior military figures have suggested that we may have as little as three years to prepare for a possible Russian offensive against Nato’s territory. These warnings are a wake-up call. We must rise to the challenge.
The defence select committee is publishing its report Ready For War?, following a thorough year-long investigation into the readiness of our Armed Forces. Our conclusions are stark.
Our Armed Forces face stockpile shortages that our industrial base cannot currently replenish fast enough. It is vital that we learn lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We need the flexibility and surge capacity to ramp up production quickly when required, so that we can respond with haste, whatever the threat.
Industry has a clear demand signal from the Ministry of Defence (MoD); this needs to be backed up by a drumbeat of orders and an expansion in capacity. It is of concern that the ￡1.95 billion earmarked for replenishing stockpiles may be used instead to plug gaps in the MoD’s budget. In the current environment, defence needs greater procurement flexibility and an approach to working with industry that will deliver the current and future capacity that is required.
Our focus in this report has been on how we ensure our professional forces, the building blocks of our defence, are up to strength, able to meet their tasks and fully equipped for the most difficult challenges. The formation of a “second echelon” in a prolonged war, however constituted, would rely on these essential foundations.
The UK’s Armed Forces are a world-class fighting force. We are fortunate to have highly trained and skilled personnel operating at home and overseas, unwavering in their commitment to protecting our nation.
Our report found that the Armed Forces are operationally ready and able to deploy at a moment’s notice – but they are consistently being tasked in multiple directions, threatening our ability to train for and fight a multi-domain, prolonged high-intensity war.
The latest Steadfast Defender joint Nato exercise – the largest Nato drill since the end of the Cold War – and the UK’s significant contribution to its success – is very welcome, but these essential exercises with our allies will create greater pressures on our forces alongside existing commitments.
This places pressure on our people: we are currently losing personnel faster than we can recruit. The MoD has acknowledged that only five personnel are recruited for every eight that leave the military. Those who remain in service are increasingly overstretched. This is a vicious cycle we need to break; the MoD’s renewed focus on recruitment is vital and timely.
Equally important is retention. The Government has the advice of two comprehensive reviews: the Haythornthwaite Review, which looked at improving the overall “offer” to personnel, and the Reserve Forces Review, which asked how we can best utilise our capable reserves. It now needs to set fully out its plans.
We must start thinking strategically about our resources. The Government will need to make difficult decisions: greater prioritisation of the Armed Forces’ tasking or provide additional resources. It’s only with additional resources that we can maintain the high operational tempo and enhance our deterrence by preparing alongside allies for high-intensity warfare.
We understand that the MoD is acutely aware of this issue. Politicians, civil servants and the military have all told us that they recognise the problems. We want them to have the bandwidth and resources they need to build warfighting resilience and strategic readiness.
The UK’s staunch contribution to Exercise Steadfast Defender should be the first of many such exercises as we show our resolve.
As Gen Omar Bradley said, “peace is our goal, but preparedness is the price we must pay”. To confront the threats we face with confidence, we need to know that we would be ready for war.
Sir Jeremy Quin is chairman of the defence select committee and the MP for Horsham
