Pennsylvania Republican fights to keep seat in tense House battle

Democrats are increasingly optimistic about ousting Rep. Scott Perry (R) in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District as the general election reaches a fever pitch in the Keystone State.

The party’s strategists point to higher turnout during a presidential cycle, along with changing demographics in the district. The district’s Democratic candidate Janelle Stelson is also seen as a key asset, given her high name ID from covering the district as a former news anchor.

But ousting Perry, who has represented the district since 2019, will be an uphill climb, as the former Freedom Caucus Chair has a history of overcoming competitive races in cycles that have been difficult for Republicans nationally.

Democrats say the race is emblematic of the suburban shifts seen in the great Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas.

“The blue swing of the suburbs isn’t just about the suburbs of Philadelphia,” said J.J. Balaban, a partner at Technicolor Political, the political media firm behind Stelson’s campaign ads.

“You’ve seen a similar phenomenon in other suburbs around the state. Part of the reason PA-10 has been growing more competitive is because of big shifts in the suburbs of Harrisburg and York,” he continued.

The shift was evident across Pennsylvania in 2022 when Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and Sen. John Fetterman (D) were elected. Former President Trump won the district by 4 points in 2020 and Perry won it by just less than 8 points. But Democrats point to Shapiro’s 12-point win in the district. Fetterman lost it by a point to his Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz.

While Shapiro was running against a weak candidate in state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), Democrats argue that Shapiro’s ability to perform well in a Republican-dominated district is evidence of movement.

“It showed there’s a lot of swing in this district,” said one Democratic strategist.

Democrats say the shift is in part due to issues like abortion access and Perry’s contesting of the 2020 presidential election results.

The abortion issue became a winning one for Democrats in Pennsylvania and across much of the country following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Stelson has made the issue central to her campaign, hitting Perry over it in one of the first two of her general election ads. 

Stelson and Perry clashed over the issue during a televised debate earlier this week on ABC27 in Harrisburg, which is owned by The Hill’s parent company Nexstar Media Group. Stelson accused Perry of supporting a national abortion ban during the forum. Perry said he opposes taxpayer funded abortions but supports exceptions in the cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother.

Stelson and her Democratic allies have also taken to hitting Perry over the 2020 election. Perry has been a subject of interest in the Justice Department’s probe looking into Trump and his allies’ efforts to overturn the results.

Democrats say Stelson by contrast is a breath of fresh air in the district.

Stelson, who was a registered Republican until early last year, came into the race with significant name ID from experience as a news anchor at WGAL. The anchor-turned-politician has said she decided to challenge Perry after she read the news of Roe being overturned in 2022.

“She’s inherently a candidate with more appeal to swing voters who can look at Janelle and say she is someone who we’ve known and who we feel comfortable with for years,” Balaban said.

Public polling has been relatively scarce in the district this cycle, but a recent survey from Susquehanna Polling and Research showing Stelson leading Perry by 9 points, with a 5-point margin of error, raised some eyebrows. Both Democrats and Republicans have expressed skepticism at the wide margin, but Democrats point to Stelson’s fundraising as a sign of rising enthusiasm.

Stelson raised $1.3 million during the second quarter and ended the period with more than $1.1 million cash on hand. Perry raised $625,000 during the same period and ended the quarter with $790,000 in the bank.

The race made national news Friday when Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) campaigned with Perry in Mechanicsburg.

“We don’t put an ounce of stock into these polls,” Johnson told reporters. “The reason that his favorabilities have come down is because they’re carpet-bombing him with negative ads trying to assault the character of a man who has served his country valiantly for over 40 years in the military and in congress.”

“I think that people are going to see through that nonsense,” the Speaker said.

While Republicans say they are watching the race, they maintain they are confident in Perry’s chances.

“I hear every two years how tight the race is going to be in the 10th district, and I listened to all of that with a bemused smirk on my face because Perry has weathered every test,” said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist and former gubernatorial candidate.

Another Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist seemed more cautious, noting the district has become “more and more purple.”

“We’ve been prepared since day one to have a dog fight,” the Republican strategist said, adding they were confident in Perry’s record.

In 2022, Perry defeated Democratic candidate Shamaine Daniels by just less than 8 points. Two years earlier, he fended off Democrat Eugene DePasquale by just less than 7 points. And following redistricting in 2018, Perry won his race against George Scott by a narrower 2.6 percent margin.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ forecast of the district shows Perry with a 54 percent chance of winning reelection, while Stelson has a 46 percent chance of ousting him.

National Republicans have brushed off the Democratic onslaught in the 10th Congressional District, noting that the House GOP’s campaign arm is not even spending in the district.

“We’re not spending there because we’re not concerned,” said one House Republican strategist.

Republicans also flipped Democrats’ arguments about the district’s results in 2022 on their head, noting that despite attacks on abortion and other Republicans underperforming in the state and across the country, Perry still won.

“That was a year where Pennsylvania Republicans lost miserably across the state,” said another House GOP strategist. “Scott Perry significantly over performed in the worst possible environment.”

Furthermore, Republicans say Trump’s presence on the ballot will result in the base turning out. Trump won the district by 4 points in 2020.

“In a district like this, with Trump on the ballot, we’re going to see extremely high turnout, especially in Pennsylvania,” the second House GOP strategist.

Pennsylvania is one of the, if not the, must-win states at the presidential level. Additionally, there are a number of statewide races on the ballot that could drive turnout on both sides of the aisle.

“Any competitive Pennsylvania race is really focused on turning out base Democratic voters in Harrisburg, in York, in Carlisle,” said the Democratic strategist. “It is certainly helpful that there is more energy now.”

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