Tropical Depression Four timeline: When will it become Tropical Storm Debby?
Tropical Storm Debby could form by Saturday afternoon after a shift west put the storm's timeline back about a day, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A timeline has been established for when the eye of what is now known as Tropical Depression Four could impact Florida over the weekend and into early next week.
On Saturday, the NHC issued a hurricane watch for a portion of Florida's Gulf Coast.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have already been issued for parts of Florida's southern and southwestern coastal areas, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for the majority of counties in the state.
Here are the latest predictions about when Tropical Depression Four could impact Florida.
How Tropical Depression Four's path has changed since Friday
On Friday, forecasters believed that Tropical Depression Four would tightly hug Florida's Gulf Coast as it made its way north, reaching an estimated landfall sometime between early Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.
Friday night, Tropical Depression Four's path shifted slightly west as it moved along Cuba's southern coast rather than cutting straight through the island and into the Straights of Florida.
The deviation in the expected path will likely give Tropical Depression Four more time to strengthen before it makes landfall, though the NHC doesn't indicate that the storm will develop into a hurricane at this time.
Now, the eye of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Debby is estimated to make landfall sometime between early Monday morning and Monday afternoon.
Tropical Depression Four timeline: 8 a.m. Saturday
At 8 a.m. Saturday, Tropical Depression Four was 170 miles south of Key West, moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of approximately 16 mph. The storm's maximum sustained winds were still around 30 mph. Sustained wind speeds must reach 39 mph before it can become a named storm.
Tropical Depression Four timeline: 2 p.m. Saturday
Tropical Depression Four will be near the northern tip of Cuba, near Havana, as it continues to track north-northwest into the Straights of Florida, referring to a body of water in between the southern tip of Florida and Cuba.
This is the point where the depression is expected to strengthen. According to AccuWeather, the water temperatures over the eastern Gulf of Mexico are in the mid to upper 80s, which would fuel the system's development.
AccuWeather also points out that the wind shear in the area, which could play a role in disrupting the system's formation, are light. The surrounding area's moisture will also aid in strengthening the storm.
Tropical Depression Four timeline: Remainder of Saturday
The latest NHC advisory doesn't provide any information for the remainder of Saturday but does predict that Tropical Storm Debby will form sometime between Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.
Unlike Friday's path, the storm is now expected to swing west of the Florida Keys and move further west-northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Depression Four timeline: 2 a.m. Sunday
By early Sunday morning, NHC predicts that Tropical Depression Four will have strengthened and become Tropical Storm Debby. It will shift slightly more north as it prepares to begin its hook northeast. This will happen much further off Florida's west coast than expected on Friday, making it less likely that Tropical Depression Four will make a quick landfall over Florida's peninsula before the hook.
Tropical Depression Four timeline: 2 p.m. Sunday
Tropical Storm Debby will be the furthest from Florida's coast around Sunday afternoon, just southwest of Sarasota and slightly southwest of Clearwater, Tampa and St. Petersburg. This is when the storm is expected to hook northeast as it begins making its way toward a potential landfall along the coast of Florida's Big Bend.
Tropical Depression Four timeline: 2 a.m. Monday
Early Monday morning, the eye of Tropical Storm Debby is expected to be just off the coast of Florida's Big Bend, putting a potential landfall anywhere between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown, which are currently under a hurricane watch.
Tropical Depression Four timeline: 2 p.m. Monday
Tropical Storm Debby will make its way east of Tallahassee by Monday afternoon as it begins to more toward the southeastern tip of Georgia. It will cross the Georgia-Florida state line and be clear of Florida by Tuesday morning.
Could Tropical Storm Debby become a hurricane?
While it's not currently expected to strengthen into a hurricane, the chance isn't completely off the table. If Tropical Depression Four stalls offshore, it could rapidly intensify and become a strong tropical storm or a hurricane.
"It is possible if the feature bumps along the Florida Peninsula's west coast and interacts with the land, strengthening may be limited," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "A quick landfall over the southwest part of the Florida Peninsula would tend to really limit the time spent over the Gulf and limit the strengthening process.
The storm's new path leads it down DaSilva's second scenario.
"However, if the feature stays more offshore until Sunday evening or night and moves in along the upper Gulf coast of Florida, it may have time to quickly ramp up and become a strong tropical storm or hurricane before pushing inland over northern Florida," DaSilva warned.
Storm tracker: Tropical Depression Four spaghetti models
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Tropical Depression Four timeline: When will it make landfall?
