In rematch with Marlinga, Rep. James to find out if he's been embraced by Macomb County

For two years, Republican U.S. Rep. John James, of Shelby Township, has worked to establish himself as an advocate for his adopted Macomb County-based district, touting Michigan-specific priorities like the Soo Locks and Selfridge Air National Guard base, trumpeting his constituent work and the money he has brought back to the region.

How successful he has been will be put to the test a week from Tuesday.

After a single term as a U.S. House member, James goes into the Nov. 5 general election with many advantages: Republican former President Donald Trump, who has long been one of his most vocal backers, is expected to carry the district, Michigan's 10th, as he has in the past two elections. James has a financial edge and a series of issues — inflation, illegal immigration, a government prod to get automakers to make more electric vehicles — that are expected to play well with the electorate.

But he also faces a test: His rival, former Macomb County Judge and Prosecutor Carl Marlinga, of Sterling Heights, has been a household name in the region for decades and presents himself (and has been widely seen as) a commonsense, moderate Democrat, dedicated to the rule of law. Two years ago, capitalizing on the fact that James, a Black businessman and former Army helicopter pilot who ran twice unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate, lived outside the district, then in Farmington Hills, Marlinga, a white lawyer, came within 1,600 votes — about one half a percentage point — of winning, despite being outspent by at least 6-to-1 and little if any outside help from the Democratic Party.

This time? In the last Federal Election Commission reporting period, Marlinga slightly outraised James, $1.6 million to $1.3 million (though James still has raised far more to date, $7.8 million to $2.2 million.) And outside groups — namely those in Washington committed to electing Democrats or Republicans to office — have poured more than $9 million into the race, more than $5 million of that on Marlinga's behalf.

A recent Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll had James up by 3.8-percentage-points, within the poll's margin of error, in the district which includes much of southern Macomb County and Rochester and Rochester Hills in neighboring Oakland County. A recent Democratic poll, meanwhile, suggested the race was tied. Little other public polling in the race has been done.

"Turnout is going to be key in this race," said pollster Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght in Lansing, who did a poll earlier this year indicating Marlinga was in the lead and noted that the Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll showed James lacking majority support at 47.4% to Marlinga's 43.9% and a larger-than-expected number, 5.9%, undecided. (The poll said 2.9% were voting for a third party.)

"Basically, he (James) is getting the party base and typically in races like this the undecided vote doesn’t break for the incumbent," Sarpolus said. "This is a very competitive race."

"Two years ago was a gubernatorial election and all of my races (for prosecutor, probate judge and circuit judge) in Macomb County have been in presidential years," Marlinga told the Free Press. "And in presidential years, I get the major share of the ticket splitters and independents."

Marlinga, who, at 77, still shows the ability to talk about a wide range of subjects in exacting detail and clearly understands the political makeup of the district, readily admits that comparing a nonpartisan judicial race with a partisan one like those for president or Congress isn't the same. "But it does give you an indication that there a lot of voters who have filled in the little blank spot for me."

James, 43, who can balance an easygoing demeanor with military verve and rigor and gave a charged speech at this summer's Republican National Convention in support of Trump and excoriating the Biden administration on inflation and protections for transgender individuals, said he readily understands that this year, with control of the U.S House up for grabs, "I have a target on my back because I ran the third-closest race in the nation last time."

"The only thing that has really changed (this year) is the fact that I've been able to legislate very well and I've been able to get resources and support back to the district in my very first term. My opponent has gotten even more extreme," said James, who noted ideological scorecards that list him as "right in the middle" or as a moderate Republican. "I'm right in the middle and that's where most Michiganders are, that's what most in the district are. They just want somebody who is going to do the best to protect their interests."

Here's a look at some major themes in the race:

James' record in Congress

James' record in Congress is necessarily short, given that he took office in January 2023, but he clearly has had some successes in a Republican-led U.S. House whose leaders understand that he represents a potential toss-up district. This year, he was added to the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee, which plays a large role in setting policy for manufacturing, including automaking. He has gotten seven pieces of legislation passed in the House, one of which, intended to rein in a National Labor Relations Board rule, passed the Senate but was vetoed by President Joe Biden. Others, which did not pass the Senate, included those to report on the security of Soo Locks, a major navigational lock on the Great Lakes in the Upper Peninsula, and to stop Biden administration auto standards he and other Republicans argue amount to a mandate that Detroit's automakers sell mostly electric vehicles. He has urged for more icebreakers to be made available to help shipping on the Great Lakes.

"The whole reason I got into this was because I wanted to help people," he said, adding he counts his constituent work, returning money to the district and getting investments in Mount Clemens, Sterling Heights and other communities, as his major achievements. It's also safe to say that while he has worked on some bipartisan bills and voiced frustration at his party as it struggled to appoint a speaker last year, he has been a reliably mainstream Republican vote and a supporter of Trump's plans for increased tariffs as a way to bring manufacturing back into Michigan.

Did James vote to allow drilling in the Great Lakes?

This is a claim Marlinga has leveled at James, that one of his first votes was to allow drilling in the Great Lakes and Lake St. Clair. "That vote is really going to haunt him," Marlinga said. This needs a lot of context. In January 2023, during debate on a Republican bill (which James supported) to maintain strategic petroleum reserves until the Biden administration developed a plan to allow more drilling on federal lands, a Democratic amendment was offered to leave the Great Lakes out of any such plan. Republicans, including James, rejected it en masse under the theory that once regions began selectively pulling areas out, the bill was doomed — as well as the fact that drilling in the Great Lakes has already been banned for decades. James called it "a dirty trick for a political purpose" since it could have doomed what he considered a necessary bill over a practice already prohibited.

Would Marlinga be a Democratic 'rubber stamp?'

James and his Republican allies have been working hard to tag Marlinga as linked with Biden and the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and what the GOP argues are failures that led to high inflation (which has been coming down for some months) and a spike in illegal immigration along the Southern border (which is also down between ports of entry, according to Customs and Border Patrol data, below where it was when Trump left office in January 2021). James said it's "impossible to imagine" Marlinga as "anything more than a rubber stamp," while he has bucked GOP leadership when it has come to protecting funds for his district.

But other than strongly supporting Harris — and arguing that she can win the 10th District by appearing to be "the adult in the room" in the race against Trump — Marlinga has continued to lean firmly into his bona fides of being a moderate and a law-and-order Democrat. On immigration, he has said he has been "puzzled" that it took Biden so long to act on the border and called for the temporary hiring of thousands of immigration judges to decide asylum claims, with those found to be specious to result in removals. "We need secure borders," he said. "We need to have a better immigration system and policy. ... You don't just let people in." He has also said much more needs to be done to bring down prices, including ramping up production of alternative energy sources to help bring gas prices down — but he's also against any effort to require more EVs be sold or any reliance on stiff tariffs as Trump has proposed. "I think a free market economy would do better," he said.

Marlinga also seems to know that the district is a toss-up and being neither a firm liberal or staunch conservative will meet what its voters are looking for. "My job is to appeal to the kind of lean-Republicans and the women Republican voters who are worried about the choice (abortion rights) issue, while assuring them that I'm a moderate Democrat that is going to be voting for policies which make economic sense," he said. While there is no reason to think Marlinga wouldn't be a reliable vote for his party, he at least has made a case that he would stand up against it when he thought it was wrong.

Marlinga's record as a lawyer

Some ads by James' Republican allies have again taken Marlinga to task for "making a living" defending "scumbags," including a man convicted of rape and a child pornographer, as they did in the 2022 race. As the Free Press reported at the time, these claims lack so much context as to be misleading. Marlinga testified decades ago to what he believed was the good character of a man accused of rape; it happened to be longtime Macomb County Sheriff William Hackel, who was so popular in the county, his son, Mark, succeeded him as sheriff and is now county executive. He also defended a pornographer while in private practice but said he did so because the man’s mother had a plausible claim that he had been set up. More significant is the fact that, at that time, Marlinga was a defense attorney and by definition, defense lawyers defend people accused of crimes. But Marlinga has a long history of prosecuting criminals and meting out justice against them as a judge that shouldn't be glossed over.

Who's to be trusted on the abortion issue?

In every close race in Michigan this year, this is a central question: Can Republicans, including James who once proclaimed himself "100% #ProLife" and likened abortion to genocide, be trusted now when they say they will not vote in Congress in any way that would compromise the abortion protections Michigan voters enshrined in the state constitution two years ago? Marlinga says no, as do other Democrats. "He (James) clearly brings a religious fervor to this and I think religious fervor is appropriate, as long as you apply it in your own life and don't try to impose it upon other people," Marlinga said.

First, it's worth noting that Marlinga, who is Roman Catholic, had a conversion on this question himself in the 1980s. "These are personal decisions. The heavy hand of government should not be involved," he said.

As for James, his anti-abortion stance is part of the public record. He hasn't changed that stance either, he said, but that "Michigan has spoken and I have to respect that." As the Free Press has noted in other articles, voters will have to decide on their own whether to believe that or not. Certainly, if a federal restriction on abortion were proposed, voting against it could carry political risks for any Republican, including James; equally, in a toss-up district such as this one, going against his word and voting for it would also carry political risks. "I'm pro-life," James added. "But anybody with a heart empathizes with women who are in this tough situation."

On the election overall, James said if the voters look at his record in office, he'll be reelected. "I believe, and I've always been taught, the way to get the job you want — and the job I want is to be reelected — is to do the job that I have well," he said. "By talking directly to the voters, sharing with them what I've been able to do in my first two years, I think that they'll be motivated to to give me another two years."

Marlinga is counting on his understanding of the issues and the electorate to push him across the finish line.

"We're going to have a good, enthusiastic turnout in the Democratic areas (of the district)," he said. "So if I had to handicap this, I would certainly give me the advantage going in."

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Rep. John James faces stiff test in rematch with Carl Marlinga