Republicans cut into Democrats' early voting edge. What it means for the race.

WASHINGTON – Republicans have cut into Democrats' recent advantage in early voting – including in key battleground states – putting Vice President Kamala Harris behind where Democrats were four years ago in the preliminary vote tally.

It follows a concerted effort by Republican nominee Donald Trump's campaign to encourage supporters to embrace early voting, including voting by mail, after the former president demonized the practice as the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic clashed with the 2020 election.

Trump during a campaign rally Wednesday in Duluth, Georgia, boasted about the critical swing state's record-setting early-vote numbers, declaring "people have never seen anything like it." But election data experts say there's no clear conclusion to draw from the Republicans' early-voting gains, and Harris allies insist the trend is not a cause for their troops to panic.

ELECTION UPDATES: Live updates, latest polls on Trump and Harris election campaigns on Friday

Democratic strategists say they expected the Republicans to make inroads because of Trump's new focus on early voting and a shift among Democrats who voted by mail out of health concerns during a contagious global pandemic and they expect are now waiting to vote on Nov. 5.

Nearly 30 million Americans as of Thursday had voted early – either in-person or through mail ballots – according to the University of Florida Election Lab, which tracks the figures each day. More than 100 million people voted early in 2020 out of a total of about 158 million votes cast in a race won by the Democrat, President Joe Biden.

In states where voters can register by party in 2024, 42% of votes cast have come from registered Democrats, while 35% have come from registered Republicans. Another 23% have come from voters not registered to either party.

That's a smaller early-vote lead for Democrats than in 2020. In that election, Democrats accounted for a larger 45% of votes cast early in states that have party registration, compared to 31% for Republicans and 24% affiliated with neither party. Trump and Republicans dominated the Election Day vote in 2020, but not by enough to hold onto the White House for a second consecutive term.

With 12 days until Election Day, Republicans have sliced in half the Democrats' 14-percentage point early-vote advantage from 2020. It's now a 7-point edge for Democrats.

"This time around, it looks as though Trump has given his supporters a green light to vote in-person early," said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, who oversees the Election Lab.

He stressed, however, that it appears many loyal Trump supporters who voted on Election Day in 2020 are voting early this year. That's a factor that could "cannibalize" Republicans' historically stronger tally on Election Day itself.

"It looks like there's some shuffling of furniture going on, but who knows exactly to what degree," McDonald said. "Regardless, if I were to take a step back, this is good for the Trump campaign that more of their voters are voting earlier."

Republicans make early voting inroads in battlegrounds

In four of the seven most closely contested battleground states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada – voters can register by party.

? In Pennsylvania – where early voting is conducted entirely by mail ballots – 61% of the 1.2 million ballots cast have been cast by registered Democrats, compared to 29% by registered Republicans and 9% by unaffiliated voters. At this same point in 2020, Democratic voters accounted for 72% of the returned mail ballots, Republicans 19%, and unaffiliated 9%.

? In North Carolina, where 2 million early votes have been cast either in-person or by mail, 35% have come from registered Democrats, 34% from registered Republicans and 31% from voters not registered to either party. At this same point in 2020, Democrats accounted for 43% of the state's early and absentee votes, Republicans 28%, and nonaffiliated voters 29%.

? In Nevada, where every voter is sent a mail-in ballot, 40% of ballots cast have come from registered Republicans, 37% from registered Democrats and 23% from unaffiliated voters. At this same point in 2020, Democrats accounted for 45% of Nevada's early votes and Republicans 33%.

? In Arizona, 42% of early mail-in ballots returned have come from registered Republicans, 36% from registered Democrats and 22% from unaffiliated voters. At this same point in 2020, Democratic voters had accounted for 44% of the early vote in Arizona and Republicans 34% of the vote.

The Democratic and Republican party shares of early votes will continue to change until Election Day. And in some states, other factors are at play. Arizona has more registered Republicans than Democrats, for example, even though Biden carried the state four years ago.

In Nevada, a new automatic voter registration law has increased the number of voters not registered with either party. Democrats say they believe these unaffiliated voters skew toward them.

Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic-aligned firm that tracks early vote figures, said Democrats were more "COVID-conscious" in 2020 compared to Republican voters and therefore more likely to cast an early vote.

With more Democrats shifting from early voting in 2020 to Election Day voting this year, and Republicans doing the opposite, the Republicans' early vote gains were expected, Bonier wrote Thursday in an analysis on Substack cautioning people not to make sweeping conclusions from the votes cast so far.

"Given that it was expected, is that a sign of (Republican) intensity?" Bonier said in an interview with USA TODAY. "We don't know at this point."

Trump changes tune on early voting

Ahead of the 2020 election, Trump repeatedly assailed early mail-in voting with false accusations about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots. The former president's rhetoric helped enable Biden and Democrats to amass a sizable lead from early votes cast before in-person Election Day voting began.

In a turnabout this year, the Trump campaign has encouraged early and mail-in voting in 2024 to avoid the same scenario again.

A record 2.1 million people have voted early, either in-person or by mail, in Georgia, which is not among the battleground states that have party registration. North Carolina has also smashed early voting records.

"We are far outperforming in our share of the early vote relative to two or four years ago across all battleground states," Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign's national press secretary, said in a statement, adding that Trump is "well-positioned for victory on November 5."

The Harris campaign downplayed the Republicans' early voting gains, pointing to the surge in Democratic early voting during the 2020 pandemic and the new emphasis Trump has placed on early voting this year.

"There's no indication these early returns suggest a broader increase in GOP turnout this election," said Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt. "Instead, Trump is no longer openly deriding early voting like he did in 2020, so more of his core supporters are choosing to utilize it now."

The Harris campaign also cited public voter file data indicating many Republicans who voted early in 2024 were Election Day voters in 2020. The campaign says it is also encouraged by turnout among Black voters in Detroit and Black women in Georgia, among other trends.

A USA Today/Suffolk University poll, taken Oct. 14 to 18, found Harris leads Trump among those who have already voted, 63%-34%. Likely voters who said they plan to wait until Election Day to vote prefer Trump, 52%-35%.

McDonald, head of the Election Lab, said while the Trump campaign has a reason to be pleased with Republicans' early vote, it's still too early in the early-voting period to draw firm conclusions.

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For example, in North Carolina, he said organized Black get-out-the-vote efforts haven't gotten underway, and young voters typically wait until the final week of in-person early voting. He said those factors should push the Democratic early-vote numbers in the Tar Heel State.

"What is it going to mean? It's going to be really hard to tell," McDonald said, adding that the big question is how many fewer Republicans vote on Election Day after more of them voted early. "That's going to be the wild card. How red is Election Day?"

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Republicans cut into Democrats' early voting edge. Will it matter?