Republicans have returned more ballots in Maricopa County. How will it affect the election?

Maricopa County voters have returned nearly 1.4 million ballots as of Friday, most of which are expected to get counted as part of the first results that will post about an hour after polls close on Election Day.

Maricopa County officials said Monday they already had received more early ballots than they did in the 2016 general election. Supervisor Bill Gates said ballot returns were "approaching the numbers" seen in the 2020 general election, which broke early voting records. Through Election Day, Gates anticipates voters will cast another 600,000 ballots countywide.

"We are thrilled by the level of participation that we are seeing in this election," Gates said. "Voters in Maricopa County are getting involved and they are voting."

Republicans continued to lead early ballot returns, with a nearly 123,000-ballot advantage over Democrats. Republicans are the largest group of registered voters in the county, which is a key swing region in battleground Arizona.

Since 2020, the GOP largely has dissuaded the party's voters from casting early ballots, citing unfounded conspiracies around mail-in voting and ballot drop boxes. But party leaders reversed course this election, with prominent Republicans such as former President Donald Trump and U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake urging conservatives to return their ballots quickly.

Meanwhile, Democrats are seeing weaker early voting numbers this cycle than in recent elections, indicating those voters may return past trends. Prior to the record-breaking 2020 election cycle, Democrats historically turned out heavily on Election Day.

One contested congressional district has especially high rates of voter participation. Republican Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., and his Democratic opponent Amish Shah are squaring off in Arizona's 1st Congressional District, which covers most of northeastern Maricopa County. That includes parts of north Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills.

It's one of the more affluent areas of the county, and voters there are participating at especially high rates. More than 75% of Republicans who have requested a ballot in the district have returned it, a 4.4 percentage point advantage compared to countywide GOP return rates.

And the same trend is especially noticeable among Democrats and independents living in the district. Nearly 75% of Democrats who requested an early ballot have returned it, an 8.2 percentage point jump from the party's countywide rate. Rates of return are at about 60% for independents in the district, a 9.1 percentage point increase compared to countywide figures.

The Arizona Republic is receiving data from the Maricopa County Recorder's Office every weekday for the previous day. Check back daily for updates on early ballot return trends.

Previous days' results are below:

Nov. 1: Not all areas are voting at equal rates, per ballot return data

Maricopa County voters returned nearly 70,000 ballots on Oct. 31, a drop from previous days' returns that could mark the end of a brief uptick coinciding with the Oct. 29 mail deadline.

Election officials were consistently reporting new daily countywide returns of more than 150,000 earlier this week. Voters had returned over 1.3 million ballots as of Oct. 31, accounting for more than 60% of early ballots requested so far.

Return rates fell across the board, but Republicans continue to lead in the numbers. They have a roughly 113,000 ballot advantage on Democrats in Maricopa County, and the highest rate of returns compared to requests.

Democrats are seeing weaker early voting numbers this cycle than in recent elections, indicating liberal voters may be resurrecting past trends. Prior to the record-breaking 2020 election cycle, Democrats historically turned out heavily on Election Day.

Some parts of the Valley are seeing higher early voting rates than the countywide figures. Most are affluent and trend older demographically than the region as a whole. Top areas for early ballot returns include:

• Sun City West, where 84.8% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• Rio Verde, where 83.8% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• Sun City, where 81.3% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• Carefree, where 78.4% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• Fountain Hills, where 77.5% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

Areas with lower rates of return are largely concentrated in the southwest Valley. They include:

• Tolleson, where 41.3% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• Gila Bend, where 41.8% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• El Mirage, where 47.7% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• Avondale, where 48.1% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

• Laveen, where 48.6% of voters who requested a ballot have returned it

Oct. 31: Ballot returns grow substantially following mailing deadline

Early ballot returns continued to rise Wednesday in Maricopa County amid an uptick coinciding with a recent mailing deadline.

Oct. 29 was the last recommended day for voters to mail back their early ballots in Arizona. In recent days, ballot returns have grown substantially in the state's most populous county.

Voters had returned more than 1.2 million ballots as of Oct. 30 — an increase of about 155,000 from Oct. 29.

Republicans continued to lead in the returns. Independents and third-party voters, who lagged the major political parties, gained some ground from Oct. 29 to Oct. 30. Their rate of return increased 6.7 percentage points to 46.9%. Republicans' rate of return increased 6.6 percentage points to 65.7% and Democrats' rate increased 6.1 percentage points to 61.8%.

As of Oct. 30, more than half of Republican voters had returned early ballots in 716 of the county's 935 voting precincts. More than half of Democrats had done so in 704 precincts. Those numbers mirror countywide return rates, suggesting that Republicans are handing their ballots in slightly faster than Democrats so far in the general election.

Oct 30: As mailing deadline hits, returns see slight uptick

Maricopa County voters returned more than 1.1 million early ballots as of Oct. 29 — more than half of those sent out so far in the election cycle.

The numbers mark a slight uptick in early ballot returns from previous days, which is expected to continue as ballots work their way to election officials. That was the last recommended day for Arizona voters to put their early ballots in the mail.

Republicans continue to dominate early ballot returns, with a growing lead of nearly 90,000 ballots. While GOP voters still have a slight edge in ballot return rates, those rates were growing roughly evenly as of Oct. 29. Republicans have returned 59.1% of ballots they've requested so far, an increase of about 6.7 percentage points from Oct. 28. Democrats have returned 55.7% of their ballots, an increase of 6.5 percentage points from Oct. 28.

Independents and third-party voters continue to lag in early ballot returns. They'd handed in just 40.2% of their requested early ballots, an increase of about 6.4 percentage points from Oct. 28.

But independents and third-party voters in some parts of the Valley are returning their early ballots at high rates. Take Pebble Creek Precinct, where 71.9% of unaffiliated and third-party voters who received early ballots have already handed in their votes.

The precinct, which is dominated by Republicans, is located just south of Luke Air Force Base in Goodyear. It is largely white, and more than 70% of its nearly 10,000 residents are registered voters.

Oct. 29: Returns near 1 million ballots as mailing deadline hits

Maricopa County voters cast close to a million early ballots as of Oct. 28, nearing the halfway mark on early ballot returns heading into the final week before Election Day.

Early turnout among Republicans and Democrats continued to climb over the weekend. GOP voters maintained their turnout advantage with a 78,000-ballot lead over Democrats.

Voters affiliated with the major parties continued to turn in ballots at a faster rate than independents and third-party voters. So far, Republicans and Democrats have returned about half of the ballots they've requested. Independents and other voters have returned just 34% of their ballots.

The county, which encompasses metro Phoenix, is likely poised for a busy week of early ballot returns. Tuesday, Oct. 29 is the last day for voters to mail back early ballots to ensure they reach election officials in time for counting.

Oct. 28: Independents lag voters affiliated with major parties in returns

Nearly 800,000 Maricopa County voters have participated in the general election — but some are turning in their ballots faster than others.

Republicans were leading early ballot returns as of Oct. 25, followed by Democrats, while independent and third-party voters lagged behind. About 44% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats who requested a ballot had returned it, compared with just 27% of other voters.

The numbers released Oct. 28 don't include ballots requested or returned over the weekend. Those figures — anticipated Oct. 29 — will kick off an expected busy week of early voting with Election Day fast approaching.

The latest numbers speak to a trend of lower political engagement among voters not affiliated with a political party, a group that has grown statewide in recent years. They are the second-largest group of registered voters in populous Maricopa County, which encompasses metro Phoenix. Republicans edged them out in recent registration data, but independents have at times outnumbered GOP voters in the region.

While commonly called "independent" voters, those unaffiliated with a political party are not necessarily moderates or swing voters. Research suggests most have strong political preferences and vote down party lines on their ballots — meaning only a small number are actually persuadable voters who swing races.

Experts also say independent voters tend to participate in elections at lower rates than party-affiliated voters. That makes their impact smaller and offers context for why they might return their ballots more slowly than registered Republicans and Democrats.

Oct. 25: GOP maintains lead in returns amid early voting push

Republicans maintained their lead in early ballot returns from Arizona's most populous county Thursday.

The latest round of returns shows more than 720,000 Maricopa County voters have cast ballots, nearly 35% of those who requested to vote early.

Republicans — who make up the largest group of registered voters in the county that comprises metro Phoenix — were handing in their ballots at a slightly higher rate than Democrats, compared to how many early ballots were requested by voters of each party. They had requested about 755,000 mailed ballots as of Thursday, and Democrats had requested nearly 660,000. Independent voters and those registered with other parties had requested just under 675,000 ballots and continued to lag in returns, but gained a bit of ground.

Since 2020, the GOP largely has dissuaded the party's voters from casting early ballots, citing unfounded conspiracies around mail-in voting and ballot drop boxes. But party leaders have reversed course this election, with prominent Republicans such as former President Donald Trump and U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake urging conservatives to return their ballots quickly.

The numbers suggest that the strategy may pay off. Republicans maintained a roughly 50,000 ballot advantage in Maricopa County. They also held the lead in most of the county's competitive legislative districts.

Oct. 24: Republicans outpacing Democrats in ballot returns

More than 600,000 Phoenix-area voters have already cast ballots in the 2024 general election, according to early ballot return data.

Returned ballots represent about one-third of the total mailed out to Maricopa County voters by election officials so far. Republicans — who make up the largest group of registered voters in the county — are currently leading by about 80,000 ballots in the returns.

As of Oct. 23, Republicans are returning ballots at a higher rate than Democrats, compared to how many early ballots were requested by voters of each party. Republicans requested about 730,000 mailed ballots, and Democrats requested 645,000. Independent voters and those registered with other parties requested about 655,000 ballots and are lagging behind in returns.

The ballot returns so far show more people voting this election than in 2022, reflecting increased voter interest in the presidential cycle. But election officials said Tuesday that returns are lagging those of 2020, although they have seen an uptick in recent days.

The 2020 election was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It saw record early voting in Arizona and across much of the country.

Another notable trend in the latest ballot returns is an increase in early voting among young people. The numbers show that early voting so far this election cycle is up among all age groups and the distribution of early voters by age is largely the same as in 2022, but there is an especially notable increase in the number of voters aged 18 to 25 who have voted so far.

Sasha Hupka covers county government and election administration for The Arizona Republic. Reach her at [email protected]. Follow her on X: @SashaHupka. Follow her on Instagram or Threads: @sashahupkasnaps. Sign up for her weekly election newsletter, Republic Recount.

Reach reporter Kunle Falayi at [email protected] or 480-268-1504.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Republicans hold early ballot return lead in Maricopa County