Slim margins in Maricopa County supervisor's race could lead to recount

A highly contested race for a county supervisor seat between two seasoned politicians appears likely to remain undecided until the bitter end of vote tallying — and potentially spark a recount.

Democrat Daniel Valenzuela was locked in a tight battle with Republican Kate Brophy McGee in a bright-purple district encompassing Phoenix and Anthem as of Monday night.

Valenzuela was leading Brophy McGee in initial results, but she slowly chipped away at his advantage and flipped the race in a result drop on the evening of Nov. 7.

The race will determine who serves on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors — and whether Democrats can pick up a new seat on the influential body. The board has long been dominated by conservatives, with a 4-1 split in favor of Republicans. But District 3, where Valenzuela and Brophy McGee are running, has seen shifting demographics in recent years.

Whoever wins will replace outgoing Supervisor Bill Gates, who decided not to run for reelection following threats and harassment after the 2020 and 2022 elections. He has not made an endorsement in the race.

Who are the candidates?

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors governs the most populous county in Arizona, and its leaders will be tasked with tackling a regional housing affordability crisis, the impacts of rapid population growth and a recent slew of unfounded election conspiracies, among other issues.

Both candidates have experience running successful campaigns for high-profile elected offices — Brophy McGee as a former state lawmaker and Valenzuela as a former member of the Phoenix City Council. They've both run active campaigns so far in the election cycle.

Brophy McGee has said she would largely continue the current board's approach to tackling the Valley's housing crisis on a regional level. She has called for developing affordable housing by working with local cities and towns and continuing public and private partnerships. She's also stressed the importance of constituent services throughout her campaign.

Valenzuela has pushed for a regional economic development plan that especially prioritizes attracting environmental technology businesses to the Valley. He has also proposed partnering with educational institutions and businesses to provide workforce development opportunities.

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Both candidates have said they largely support a conservative approach to the county budget, but the two have individually stressed the importance of investments in public safety and have listed it as a top priority of their campaigns. They both support an extension of the county's half-cent transportation tax, and both have said they'd seek to work with state lawmakers to address concerns around water availability in the county.

Will the race go to a recount?

The contest looked poised to head to an automatic recount as of Monday night.

Under state law, elections automatically head to a recount if the margin of victory is 0.5% or less.

A recount truly means a complete recount. If a contest falls into the recount margin, election workers must completely retest their county's tabulators, retally the race and repeat a hand count audit of a statistically significant number of the ballots.

All of that happens after county officials certify election results, so recounts may not be completed until a few weeks after Election Day. Any recount results will ultimately be unsealed in court by a judge.

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Sasha Hupka covers county government and election administration for The Arizona Republic. Reach her at [email protected]. Follow her on X: @SashaHupka. Follow her on Instagram or Threads: @sashahupkasnaps. Sign up for her weekly election newsletter, Republic Recount.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Maricopa County Board of Supervisors District 3 race may see recount