Slotkin stakes out 5-point lead on Rogers in US Senate race, Detroit Free Press poll says
In the race for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, a new Free Press poll showed Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin with a 5-percentage-point lead over Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, giving her what appeared to be a small-but-significant edge heading into Election Day next Tuesday.
The poll, done for the Free Press and its media partners by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, showed Slotkin, a three-term congresswoman from Holly, leading Rogers, who lives in White Lake and left Congress after seven two-year terms in 2015, 47%-42%. Another 6% were leaning toward voting for a third party candidate and 4% were undecided, refused to answer or said they would not vote in the race.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. For the survey, EPIC-MRA contacted 600 randomly selected voters from across the state. In the pollster's previous poll done in August, Slotkin led 46%-42%.
With control of the Senate on the line in this year's election, the race between Rogers and Slotkin has been getting national attention and some polls, including one done by USA TODAY and Suffolk University and reported on by the Free Press this week, have shown it to be even tighter, though with Slotkin ahead.
The seat became open when early last year Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow said she would not run for a fifth six-year term. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since Spencer Abraham in 1994, who served a term before being beaten by Stabenow, then a congresswoman.
The poll indicated that among the 18% of all voters who listed abortion rights as their chief concern, 79% supported Slotkin to 14% for Rogers; among the 30% who said inflation and the cost of living was their chief worry, Rogers did better, with support from 66% of those respondents, but Slotkin got 22%.
Rogers' support in the poll largely tracked that of Republican former President Donald Trump's in his race against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris but lagged those levels somewhat. For instance, among the 13% of respondents who said immigration was their chief concern, Trump got support from 90% to 6% for Harris. Rogers, on the other hand, got support from 82% of those voters, with 7% for Slotkin and 11% preferring a third party or remaining undecided.
The poll indicated that white voters were split down the middle between the two, 46%-46%; among Black voters, it was Slotkin who lagged Harris' most recent poll numbers. Where the vice president, who is running to become the first woman, Black woman and woman of South Asian descent to be president, led Trump 87%-5% among that key bloc, Slotkin's support was 78%-7% with 15% undecided or preferring a third-party candidate.
Still, Slotkin had some obvious advantages. While Rogers had an 84%-7% margin with self-identified Republicans, she led among Democrats 90%-4% and the important set of independent voters broke toward her, 45%-26% with another 28% undecided or preferring a third party candidate. And while Rogers, a former FBI agent and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, had a 49%-42% lead among men, Slotkin's lead among women was far greater, at 52%-37%.
Among the 31% of respondents who said they had already voted either at the polls through early voting or by absentee ballot, Slotkin led Rogers 65%-33%. He led 49%-38% among the 62% who expected to vote in person at the polls but that also included 13% who said they were leaning toward a third party or still undecided.
Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Slotkin leads Rogers by 5 points for US Senate: Free Press poll