How a small number of Americans will decide the election
Hello! I hope you’re having a great week.
Several of our reporters have spent the last few weeks in the critical swing states, and in this edition of the Stakes I thought we’d take a closer look at those states – the bits of the US that will, essentially, decide the election in November.
First up though, some other things going on in US politics this week.
Here’s what you need to know
1. Trump summations
Donald Trump, in making hush-money payments to prevent accusations emerging of him having an affair, engaged in “a scheme to influence the election”, the prosecution said in closing arguments during the former president’s trial in New York. Trump’s lawyer, meanwhile, sought to undermine the testimony of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former aide and the prosecution’s star witness, describing Cohen as “the greatest liar of all time”.
2. Contrasting tones
Joe Biden gave an emotional speech on Sunday, the Memorial Day holiday in the US, where he said “the hurt is still real” from the death of his son Beau Biden, who served in the Iraq war. Trump marked the day by lashing out at his “human scum” opponents on Truth Social.
3. Celebrity backings
Robert DeNiro popped up outside the Manhattan courthouse where Trump is on trial on Tuesday, the veteran actor calling the former president a “clown”. It came a few days after the Biden campaign released a DeNiro-voiced advert warning about a Trump second term. Other celebrity Biden supporters include George Clooney and Julia Roberts, while Tom Hanks and Taylor Swift endorsed Biden in 2020. Trump, meanwhile, has a more eclectic list of well-known supporters: there’s Chuck Norris, Kid Rock and that guy who played Superman for a bit in an early-90s TV show.
The places that really matter
What are swing states? Do they have anything to do with playground swings? Are they anything to do with people putting their keys in a bowl? (No, they aren’t.)
Swing states refer to the small number of states in the US that have a track record of alternating between voting for Democratic and Republican presidents, often by margins of just a few thousand voters.
In the modern era, New York, California and many other coastal states have almost always voted for Democratic presidential candidates. The majority of states in the south, including Texas, Alabama and Oklahoma, now vote for Republicans.
Biden can count on the Democrat-supporting states to vote for him. Trump knows he has the backing of the Republican-supporting states. But they aren’t enough on their own. To win, Biden and Trump need to take some of the swing states to tip them over the edge.
These states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – are where the election will be won or lost. (Current polling suggests Trump is leading in some of the states, although the election is still quite a long way away.)
Thought about that way, the whole election carnival starts to make more sense. On Tuesday, for example, the Biden campaign announced that three police officers who were on duty during the January 6 insurrection will campaign for Biden in five states: Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden has also deployed DeNiro – him again – to voice an ad running in Wisconsin.
Both campaigns will also spend the next few months bombarding the seven swing states: millions of dollars will be spent in advertising, and more famous people will be dispatched to places like Detroit, Michigan, and Atlanta, Georgia. Biden has already been to Wisconsin four times this year, and in April spent three days campaigning in Pennsylvania; Trump held events in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin across March, April and May.
An interesting thing to note, however, is that swing states aren’t set in stone. Arizona and Georgia were seen as solidly Republican until Biden won there in 2020. On the flip side, until 2016 Florida and Ohio were both considered swing states, voting for George W Bush in 2000 and 2004, but Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But then changing demographics in both states saw Trump win Florida and Ohio in both 2016 and 2020, and Democrats aren’t expected to win either this time round.
Biden did however win five crucial states in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But our recent reporting has revealed a different picture as we approach November. In Georgia, Michael Sainato found people worried about the rising cost of everyday items like groceries, while in Michigan, Chris McGreal spoke to Trump supporters who might be less enthusiastic than they used to be but still plan to vote for the former president.
On the road
Even within swing states, there are “swing counties” – microcosms of the whole phenomenon where those narrow margins of a few thousand or even a few hundred votes matter the most. In Michigan, Joe Biden should be worried about Janel Turner, owner of Kreole Qweenz gumbo shop, writes the Guardian’s Tom Perkins from downtown Saginaw:
Turner represents the intersection of the kind of residents with whom the president is struggling: millennial and Black, with doubts about Biden. Turner said she voted independent last time around, and with a laugh, added she won’t say for sure who she’ll support in November.
But her small business, retirement and social security are a worry, and Donald Trump “may just be a better fit with the economy”, Turner added. “A lot of people I know are in the same boat.”
Saginaw, which is 46% African-American, is a must-win swing county in a must-win swing state. Though Saginaw comprised only about 2% of Michigan’s 2020 turnout, the candidates know its importance: Biden has already campaigned here twice this year, and Trump visited in early May. Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020 after Trump won by about 11,000 votes four years prior, and 18-34-year-olds are going to be key.
“If younger people don’t show up then the Democrats lose statewide,” pollster Ed Sarpolus said.
Related: Will Biden’s economic agenda challenge Trump’s appeal to Michigan swing county? We asked residents
Lie of the week
If Donald Trump has one maxim, it’s not to let the truth get in the way of trying to make money. This week he pulled out a lie of extreme proportion in a fundraising ploy: a claim that the FBI was prepared to use deadly force – to kill him, if needed – when it raided Mar-a-Lago to search for classified documents.
“DEADLY FORCE? Biden authorized it. They brought guns to the raid on Mar-a-Lago!” the fundraising email said.
The reality: Trump and his supporters have misconstrued boilerplate language in FBI policy that dictates the circumstances in which the agency could use force. Never mind that Trump wasn’t even home when the search happened.
- Rachel Leingang, misinformation reporter
Ahoy there!
A bunch of Trump supporters are planning a “Maga boat parade” in Michigan later this month. According to an email in my inbox, the parade will be a demonstration of “nautical enthusiasm” that will be “massive”, “amazing” and “special”.
The boats, which will be decorated with Trump flags, will take to Lake St Clair and pootle towards Detroit, Michigan’s largest city, on 15 June, a day after Trump’s 78th birthday.
Previous Maga (Make America Great Again) boat parades have seen multiple pro-Trump boats sink or capsize. Sounds fun, eh! USA! USA!
