Hurricane Oscar forms in the Atlantic with 'unexpected' strong winds

Editor's note: Follow along here for updates about Atlantic storms on Oct. 20.

A storm system in the Caribbean rapidly escalated Saturday from a tropical storm into Hurricane Oscar, the 10th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters said Oscar's winds were much stronger than previously thought and declared the system a hurricane at 2 p.m. ET. Oscar's maximum sustained winds were about 80 mph with stronger gusts, which was "unexpected," forecasters said. It could strengthen more on Saturday before gradual weakening begins next week.

Oscar could bring indirect impacts to East Coast beaches in the U.S. from a long period swell in the coming days, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida.

Oscar was also the eighth named storm to form since Sept. 24, breaking a record for most named storms formations between Sept. 24 and Oct. 19, set in 1950, Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, posted on X. 

Hurricane warnings were issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas, while Cuba has issued hurricane watches for the Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas provinces.

Tropical Storm Nadine makes landfall

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine made landfall in Belize at about noon ET Saturday. Its maximum sustained winds were 50 mph Saturday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm warnings had been issued for Belize City and areas from Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel. With widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches expected, Nadine will spur localized flash flooding across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala and northern Belize.

Tropical storm conditions were expected along parts of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Saturday afternoon, the hurricane center said. Isolated amounts of rain exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

Nadine poses no threat to the U.S. As the storm moves inland, it is expected to weaken and likely dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday, the center said.

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Tropical Storm Nadine tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Nadine spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Hurricane Oscar expected to intensify, then slow

Hurricane Oscar was located about 165 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas and was moving west at 12 mph as of Saturday afternoon. Oscar is expected to undergo some intensification as it gradually slows and turns to the west-southwest over the next couple of days.

Oscar could stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba within 36 to 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba in the next day, and heavy rainfall will begin Saturday and continue overnight.

"Dangerous" storm surge was also expected to produce coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands with water levels 2 to 4 feet, the hurricane center said.

How Oscar went from a tiny storm to a Cat 1 hurricane in hours

For a week, the National Hurricane Center had watched a disorganized area of showers moving across the Atlantic waiting to see whether it would develop, first increasing, then decreasing the chances it would become something more. On Saturday morning, a variety of images showed the little storm had suddenly come to life, developing a closed, tight circulation.  The hurricane center warned just before 8 a.m. that it was organizing and had a 60% chance of becoming a named storm later on Saturday.

A little more than two hours later, the center announced it would start issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Oscar at 11 a.m. By 2 p.m. it was a hurricane with 80-mph winds after an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight found an eye, dropping pressure and hurricane-force winds.

Based on the hurricane center’s advisories, Oscar’s winds increased 40 mph in just three hours, although the winds may have been higher than initially estimated. It's still a small storm: Hurricane-force winds extend out only up to 5 miles from the center and its mean diameter is just about 80 miles.

Oscar is at least the fifth hurricane this year to undergo a phenomenon called rapid intensification, when winds increase at least 35 mph in 24 hours.

Hurricanes can take advantage of conditions such as warm ocean water and low wind shear to quickly gain strength, and waters in the Caribbean and this area of the Atlantic are warmer than normal. These warm waters have fueled storms all summer. Hurricane Beryl gained 95 mph in wind speeds in just 42.5 hours.  Then Milton’s winds increased by 95 mph in just 24 hours. Helene and Francine also rapidly intensified.

Hurricane Oscar tracker

Hurricane Oscar spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

About six weeks remain in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. So far this season, there have been 15 named storms. The next storm to form will be named Patty.

After a relatively quiet five weeks or so, the 2024 season – especially with the arrival of Helene and Milton – became an above-average hurricane season, according to Klotzbach. He noted that typically, the 14th storm named in the Atlantic Ocean forms on Nov. 19, in a post on X.

Through Oct. 28 there is a 50% chance for tropical development, Colorado State University meteorologists said in a recent two-week forecast. "There are hints of potential additional development in the western Caribbean late in the forecast period, but these signals are fairly weak," CSU forecasters said.

Atlantic storm tracker

Contributing: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud and Doyle Rice of the USA TODAY Network.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.

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(This story was updated to add new information.)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: Hurricane Oscar forms, 10th hurricane of season