Suddes: Does Donald Trump have the 'oomph' to ensure J.D. Vance is 'in like Flynn'?

One key question about Tuesday’s statewide primary election: How much clout does former President Donald Trump have in Ohio?

Eight days ago, in Delaware County, Trump endorsed GOP candidate J.D. (James David) Vance, author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” to be Ohio Republicans’ 2022 U.S. Senate nominee.

Trump rally: Donald Trump holds Ohio rally amid criticism of J.D. Vance endorsement for U.S. Senate

Two-term incumbent Republican Sen. Rob Portman, of suburban Cincinnati’s Terrace Park, is retiring.

If Trump has the oomph he had when Ohioans twice supported him for president (51.3% of Ohio’s vote in 2016, 52.3% in 2020), Vance should be in like Flynn.

Trouble is, besides Vance, at least two other Senate candidates (at this writing) also lead the GOP’s Senate pack: entrepreneur Mike Gibbons and ex-state treasurer Josh Mandel, both Greater Clevelanders. It appears there’s nothing Gibbons won’t spend, and Mandel won’t say, to land the Senate nomination.

Meanwhile, Vance is busy eating the nasty words he once used to describe Trump. There’s no truer believer than a convert.

Also seeking the Senate nomination are state Sen. Matt Dolan, of suburban Cleveland, chair of the state Senate’s budget-writing Finance Committee, who usually seems to be the only adult in the room; former Republican state chair Jane Timken, of Canton, whom Portman supports; and Delaware Countians Neil Patel and Mark Pukita, who are businesspeople.

Ohio Democrats’ likely Senate nominee will be U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, of suburban Warren. He’s being challenged by fellow Democrats Morgan Harper and Traci (TJ) Johnson.

If Trump has backed the right horse, then Ohio’s GOP insiders will kowtow even more than they do now to the former president. But if Trump placed a bad bet, avid Ohio Republicans will inch away from the former president in search of the Next Big Thing in a GOP that’s now fueled by sensation, not principle.

Suddes: Democrats lost their mojo in Ohio decades ago. Can they win elections here now?

In any case, the Republican brouhaha shouldn’t mislead Democrats into assuming that GOP rivalries will help Democrats capture the Senate seat. Democrats have from time to time unseated Republican senators—e.g., then-Sen. Mike DeWine bested by Democrat Sherrod Brown in 2006—but Democrats have been less successful in capturing so-called open seats (when a Senate incumbent isn’t on the ballot).

Here’s a second big question that Tuesday’s primary poses: Will now-Gov. Mike DeWine draw at least 50% of the vote, bolstering him (or not) to face either of two Democratic ex-mayors—Cincinnati’s John Cranley or Dayton’s Nan Whaley—in November’s gubernatorial election? (At this writing, the Cranley-Whaley contest is said to be close.)

Four years ago, in his gubernatorial primary contest with then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, DeWine drew 59.8% of the GOP vote to Taylor’s 40.2%. This time around, DeWine has three foes in the race for the Republican nomination: former U.S. representative Jim Renacci, of Wadsworth; former state representative Ron Hood, of Ashville, and Canal Winchester farmer Joe Blystone.

Suddes: Is DeWine going to be reelected governor?

It’s hard to believe, but the intra-GOP rap on DeWine is that he’s not conservative enough, that he went too far in trying to save Ohioans’ lives amid the COVID-19 pandemic. To some people on the right, to succeed—which DeWine did as to COVID-19 —evidently is to fail.

That DeWine is 100% anti-abortion also seems to count for little among his GOP critics. Still, there is an anti-DeWine current among some Ohio Republicans, which makes Renacci the natural beneficiary of protest votes aimed at the governor.

Given that this year’s gubernatorial campaign is likely DeWine’s last primary contest, whether he garners 50% or less of the GOP primary is less important than whether he garners a plurality (the most votes cast in the four-way contest)—which DeWine will, thus winning the GOP’s nomination.

Suddes: Predictions ahead of the 2022 statewide elections: And the nominees are ...

But an underwhelming showing in the GOP primary would, at the very least, energize the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, whether that person is Cranley or Daytonian Nan Whaley. Unseating an incumbent Republican governor in Ohio isn’t easy; Democrats last did it in 1958.

But if Republicans are divided, it can happen—as GOP insiders well know. They also know that if Donald Trump picked the wrong horse in Ohio’s Republican senatorial primary, that will shake up politics in Ohio—and, maybe, nationally.

Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. [email protected]

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Suddes: Can Donald Trump's endorsement help JD Vance win?