Tight Michigan House races could decide which party wins control

In the 2022 November election, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won reelection and Democrats flipped the state House and Senate from GOP control for the first time in 40 years. This fall's election will decide the fate of the Democrats' trifecta.

With their newfound power in Lansing, Democrats repealed Michigan's right-to-work law and abortion restrictions. They overhauled Michigan's tax system to provide relief for retirees and low-income earners. They passed gun safety measures and protections for LGBTQ+ Michiganders. They set a clean energy target and passed school budgets that include free meals for students.

Republicans have campaigned against corporate subsidies approved by Democrats to lure new electric vehicle-related jobs to the state. They've also railed against Democratic opposition to making a temporary income tax cut permanent. They've blasted the most recent school budget that included no per-pupil funding increase and new energy laws that give state regulators the power to supersede local zoning laws to install green energy projects.

"It's going to be super close," said Adrian Hemond, CEO of Lansing-based consulting firm Grassroots Midwest, of the race to control the state House. The possibility of a tie in the chamber isn't off the table, Hemond said: "I actually think it's a reasonably likely outcome."

Michigan is a battleground state in the presidential election. But the outcome of state legislative races can have a big impact on Michiganders' lives, too. State lawmakers craft the state budget. They help set the policy agenda in Lansing, from housing to criminal justice. They provide oversight of state government. And their offices are often residents' direct pipeline to state government, said Hemond.

But the top of the ticket often has an impact on down ballot races. In 2022, Democrats running for the state House benefited from Whitmer's strong performance. Whitmer won by a nearly 11-percentage point margin that year. An abortion rights measure was also on the ballot two years ago and received nearly 57% of the vote. This time, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, appears to face a tighter race than Whitmer did for governor and there are no statewide proposals.

A number of competitive districts in play

Democrats have a razor-thin majority in the Michigan House of Representatives. There are 110 seats in the state House. Democrats hold 56 of those seats and Republicans hold 54 of them. In one of the tightest races of 2022, for example, had just 331 votes gone to Republican House candidate Bob Howey instead of state Rep. Jaime Churches, D-Wyandotte, it would have prevented a Democratic majority in the House.

The Democratic Party currently holds a two-seat majority but it can't afford to lose a single vote in the face of united GOP opposition because a bill requires the support of a majority of members elected and serving. So in order to win back control of the state House, Republicans need to flip two seats from blue to red.

About a dozen districts — maybe more — appear to be in play. From metro Detroit to Marquette, districts home to tight House races dot the state and could decide which party wins control. All but one seat in the state House is up for grabs: State Rep. Karen Whitsett, D-Detroit, who represents a safely Democratic district, doesn't have an opponent.

With their legacies on the line, governors hit the trail

Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder has hit the road to campaign for GOP state House candidates. This election cycle, he has been supporting GOP fundraising efforts.

"It's great to be back in action helping House Republicans win a majority this election cycle," Snyder told a roomful of GOP state lawmakers and their supporters during an Oct. 24 stop in Rochester, Republican state Rep. Mark Tisdel's district. "This is about bringing Michigan back again." Tisdel, of Rochester, faces Democrat Trevis Harrold in the competitive Oakland County district.

Whitmer — who succeeded Snyder — was just down the block that day holding her own event to boost Democratic candidates for the state House. "We are here because we know that the average person, the average small business owner, that people are always looking for more opportunities to find their path to prosperity and take care of their families and their employees," she said at a stop in Rochester, according to a story on the event from Gongwer. "We've done a lot of good work, but there's always more work to do."

Whitmer has reversed several Snyder-era policies. "I don't take it personally," Snyder told reporters at the Oct. 24 Rochester event. But he said he's generally worried about the direction the state is heading in, which he said prompted him to step into House Republicans' campaign.

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Top of the ticket dynamics

But unlike Whitmer — who's a national co-chair of Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign — Snyder doesn't want to talk about the presidential race. Snyder supported President Joe Biden in the 2020 election. But he won't say publicly who he's voting for this time.

"Because it would distract from my work for the Michigan House," Snyder said.

Whitmer's event in Rochester was just wrapping up as the prominent former GOP politician got ready to head to the next campaign stop. At the Whitmer event, a souvenir was left behind: A foam hand in the shape of Michigan bearing Harris' name and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Contact Clara Hendrickson: [email protected] or 313-296-5743. Follow her on X, previously called Twitter, @clarajanehen.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan has a number of competitive state House races