Trump-Harris presidential race in Michigan: What our polls tell us about Election Day 2024
Election Day is Tuesday and Michiganders are set to select a new U.S. senator and help determine who the next president is. With that in mind, here's what the Free Press' polls ? as well as others ? are telling us about who is expected to win.
In a nutshell, it looks to be close.
US presidential race: Harris vs. Trump poll in Michigan
Our most recent poll, published Friday and done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press and its media partners, showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican former President Donald Trump in Michigan 48%-45% on the strength of growing support among Black voters and women.
Given that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, it could mean that the race is a dead heat. But it also suggests a swing toward Harris and was the first time the Democratic candidate in the race for president led Trump in Michigan in EPIC-MRA's polls since last November.
Michigan's 15 Electoral College votes, which will be awarded to whoever wins the popular vote for president in the state, could be crucial in determining the winner. Michigan is one of a handful of swing states that will determine the race, along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Our poll was a bit better for Harris than some others. Websites that average out poll results suggest that Harris is ahead in Michigan anywhere from 1-percentage-point to about about 2 percentage points.
And the race really looks to be tight across all the swing states. Michigan and Wisconsin look the most favorable for Harris; most of the others look more favorable for Trump. Pennsylvania and Nevada look like the closest right now. As to what that means, if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she has her best chance of becoming president; if Trump wins all the other swing states and picks up one of those three, he has the best chance of winning.
Nationally, by the way, most of the averages have Harris ahead slightly.
U.S. Senate race: Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers
In the race for Michigan's open U.S. Senate race, the Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly, led Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake by 5 percentage points, 47%-42% in the Free Press' most recent poll.
That's just outside the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error.
Slotkin has generally led in most polls in the race to succeed Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced early last year she wouldn't run for a fifth six-year term. But the polls are close enough that even a minor polling error ? or a surge of supporters at the ballot booth ? could make it either an upset or a blowout for either candidate.
Other election poll information
By the way, the Free Press has reported on a good deal of other polling data over recent weeks and months of this election season. Here's a handful of links to those stories:
Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.
This story has been updated to clarify information.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Election polls 2024: What they say about Michigan, US Senate