Trump led in Michigan poll before debate

Two-thirds of Michigan voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction — and a narrow majority think former president Donald Trump is the one to steer things back on course, new polling data suggests.

Trump narrowly beat President Joe Biden in a poll from EPIC-MRA, a Lansing based public opinion metrics company. Trump had the edge in a standoff between the two, earning 49% of the vote compared to Biden’s 45%. When including front-running third-party candidates, Trump also closed out Biden by a small margin, 41% to 38%.

Poll data offers insight into prospective voter sentiment as a snapshot in time. This poll, conducted between June 21 and June 26, gauged 600 Michigan voters on their thoughts about the presidential election and Michigan’s contested senate seat. The poll was conducted with live interviews, 80% of which took place over a cell phone, and has a margin of error of 4%.

The poll was conducted in the run-up to Thursday’s debate between presumed Democratic and Republican candidates Trump and Biden. Another poll, aiming to identify how the debate re-shaped views of Michigan voters, is expected in July. The impact could be substantial — on either campaign — said Bernie Porn, pollster for EPIC-MRA.

“In a nutshell, you had Biden having a difficult time speaking the truth about a number of issues in a way that would be interesting and compelling,” said Porn. “Trump was able to much more articulately tell a lot of things that were not necessarily truthful.”

But even before the debate, Robert F. Kennedy, the highest performing third-party contender, showed surprising gains from Biden’s usual base in this poll, compared to prior polls that have shown Kennedy pulling in voters from the Trump base.

“Given what happened [during the debate], I would not be surprised if that becomes a greater problem, where the Biden campaign needs to focus some of their efforts on dissuading people from moving for Kennedy,” Porn said.

Pollsters asked the 124 voters who stated they were most inclined toward a third-party candidate whose second term they feared more among the mainstream frontrunners — 40% said Biden, while 36% said Trump.

The current president’s job performance got similarly abysmal reviews: 69% of those polled gave a negative rating when asked about his term thus far.

Even so, most Detroiters polled stood behind Biden. Seventy-one percent said they would vote his way if it came down to another Biden-Trump match-up in the November election. The incumbent president is also picking up favor from union members and Black voters, whose support has lagged in recent polls.

Biden’s support in Detroit is on par with Democratic U.S. Senate contender Elissa Slotkin in the state’s most contentious race in the 2024 election cycle, the upcoming U.S. Senate contest, poll data suggests. Across the state, Slotkin outperformed her presumed Republican opponent Mike Rogers by 2%.

Forty-seven percent of those polled felt that Michigan was on the right path, and most were pleased with the governor so far — both favorability and job performance for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer were above 50%.

An endorsement from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer could potentially help Biden ramp up support in the rest of Michigan, said Porn.

“One thing that could be helpful to Biden, although I'm not sure whether it will be helpful enough, is for Whitmer to more directly endorse and support Biden and explain why voters need to support and Michigan needs to support Biden,” he said.

Carmela Guaglianone is a Dow Jones News Fund data intern with the Detroit Free Press. Reach her at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Trump outperformed Biden in Michigan polls before debate