The Chicago Sky still have a shot to make the playoffs. Here’s what needs to happen on the WNBA’s Decision Day.
With one game left in the season, the Chicago Sky are still in contention for a WNBA playoff spot.
Barely.
The Sky lost to the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday, upending the standings once again for the three teams chasing the final postseason spot. The Sky, Dream and Washington Mystics are still in play for the No. 8 seed, the winner of which will face the top-seeded New York Liberty in a best-of-three first-round series.
The Mystics also lost Tuesday, which propelled the Dream into eighth place and the driver’s seat for the final playoff spot, which will be decided Thursday — the final day of the regular season — when all 12 teams are in action.
The Mystics play host to the Indiana Fever, the Dream face the Liberty in New York and the Sky play the Sun in Connecticut. All three games will tip off at 6 p.m., creating a legitimate Decision Day environment.
Here’s how it will shake out.
The Dream (14-25) can keep things simple by winning or if all three contenders lose — with a one-game lead over the Sky (13-26) and Mystics (13-26) entering Thursday, the Dream would earn the final playoff spot. But if they lose and the Mystics and/or Sky win, things get complicated. These are the four tiebreakers, via WNBA.com:
Better record in head-to-head games
Better winning percentage against all teams with .500 or better record at the end of the season
Better point differential in games net result of total points scored less total points allowed head-to-head
Better point differential net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents
In the first tiebreaker, the Sky were 2-2 against the Dream and 1-3 versus the Mystics. Atlanta and Washington split their four-game season series.
Because of the two ties, the second tiebreaker would come into play: record against .500-plus teams. The Sky and Dream are 4-17 in this category, while the Mystics are 2-20. Muddying this scenario is the fact all three play teams Thursday with winning records — which will alter the numbers — and the Phoenix Mercury enter their season finale against the Seattle Storm at 19-20, meaning a victory would give them a .500 record and factor their games against the three contenders into the equation.
Easy-peasy, right?
Here’s a simplified version of the tiebreaker scenarios:
If the Dream win, Mystics win and Sky win: Dream advance
If the Dream win, Mystics win and Sky lose: Dream advance
If the Dream win, Mystics lose and Sky win: Dream advance
If the Dream lose, Mystics win and Sky win: Mystics advance
If the Dream lose, Mystics lose and Sky win: Sky advance
If the Dream lose, Mystics lose and Sky lose: Dream advance
For fans, the only thing to focus on Thursday night is that the Sky can advance only with a win — and the Dream and Mystics lose. Any other combination would end the Sky’s season.
That might be the preferred outcome for the Sky, who are facing a slew of injuries after Angel Reese was shut down for the season with a wrist injury this month. Falling short of the playoffs could mean a 10th-place finish with a solid shot at a top-three draft pick next spring.
Tuesday’s Sky injury report came as close to waving a white flag as possible. Kamilla Cardoso (shoulder) and Chennedy Carter (foot) sat out. Cardoso attempted to fight through shoulder discomfort Sunday in a loss to the Phoenix Mercury, playing only nine minutes before exiting. She didn’t return.
Despite these factors, coach Teresa Weatherspoon remained fervently focused on her goal of continuing the Sky’s five-season streak of making the playoffs.
“A lot of our time is sitting on the sideline,” Weatherspoon said after Tuesday’s loss. “We know that. We see that. But those five that get on the floor and those three that are available on the bench, they’re playing hard every single night to give themselves an opportunity and a chance. We recognize that we’re still in it until the last horn sounds.”
The reality is the Sky likely will play their final game with only eight available players. With Carter, Cardoso and Reese on the bench, the Sky are missing close to 60% of their total offense. And their Decision Day matchup is against a Sun team eager to clinch the No. 3 seed, which would be guaranteed only with a win.
The end of the road is near for the Sky — even with some head-turning scenarios left to play out.